Trumpism, climate and COVID: Social bases of the new science rejection

phenomenon were not the original paper’s focus, but their dataset, also published, includes a question on 2020 voting. CVH is almost twice as common among Trump voters compared with Biden voters (60 vs. 33 percent). In multivariate analysis (by the author of this paper, not Motta et al.), Trump vs. Biden voting dominates other background factors (political party, gen- der, age, education, religion and race) as the strongest predictor of CVH. This example illus- trates the ease with which politicized rejection in one area of science can generalize or spill over to other areas. It also highlights Trumpism as a key element in this process, extending to topics where Trump himself has said nothing. Although conservative distrust of science does not apply to every field, it is demonstrably widespread and fits with broad trends toward anti-intellectualism [108] or rejection of exper- tise [109], populist impulses that can be mobilized to support economic or political goals [110]. The scientific method itself, a system for critically testing ideas against reality, will seem objectionable when it fails to support identity-bound convictions. In their study of online dis- course among flat Earthers, Diaz Ruiz and Nilsson [111] note the importance of grievances and group identification, which make fact-checking irrelevant. Similar observations could apply more widely, including conspiratorial claims about climate and COVID. In the case of climate change and COVID, preexisting biases against scientists were reinforced by messaging

from economic and political elites serving interests such as fossil fuel use or Trump’s re- election. Trump approval correlates with other conspiracy or science-rejecting views. Trumpists indicate higher agreement not only with flat Earth and Moon landing conspiracies, but also that vaccinations implant tracking microchips, and COVID-19 dangers have been exaggerated by scientists. At the same time, they express lower agreement with scientific conclusions that the Earth is billions of years old, humans evolved from earlier forms of life, human activities are changing the climate, or vaccines are mostly beneficial [41]. Trump’s expressed positions have sometimes changed rapidly, including a reversal on COVID-19 vaccinations—from his administration’s initiative (Operation Warp Speed, intended to spur vaccine development) to post-administration opposition, when it seemed President Biden could get credit. Trump’s views on the Centers for Disease Control reversed even faster, in just a few months [18]. In both cases, Trump’s followers echoed his reversals. To some degree, the content of Trumpism hinges on whatever Trump says. Among supporters surveyed for a CBS News poll in August 2023, 71 percent reported feeling that what Trump tells them is true—much higher than the fractions expressing trust in their friends and family, conservative media, or religious leaders [112]. Noting that such attitudes insulate Trump sup- porters even from other conservative viewpoints, one observer wrote that “Trumpworld is a

bubble within a bubble” [113]; another remarked that “If reality contradicts Trump, reality is wrong” [114]. Science and expertise remain outside the control of this bubble, and often in opposition to it. Unfortunately, there are deadly consequences to having a large fraction of the US public reject expertise regarding anthropogenic climate change, pandemics and other hard realities. As with any study, the findings here depend on the data at hand—a US survey conducted in mid-2021. There is much scope for cross-national comparisons. Outside the US, climate change and COVID are salient issues with ideological divisions [115–117], although the reality of these problems may be less disputed by mainstream parties. US left/right party or ideologi- cal divisions do not necessarily map onto the politics of other countries. Trumpism might, however, have analogues elsewhere in populist leaders or movements that combine grievances and anti-immigrant sentiments with authoritarianism and rejection of mainstream liberal democratic values [118,119]. PLOS ONE Trumpism, climate and COVID PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293059 January 10, 2024 13 / 20