Drivers of urban biodiversity in Mexico and joint risks from future urban expansion, climate change, and urban heat island effect

substantial differences between different multivariate risk indices from different scenarios (Fig F in S1 Appendix). The multivariate risk tends to be higher in municipalities in northern Mexico (e.g., Hermo- sillo, Jua´rez, and Chihuahua and the central region in Mexico (e.g., Iztapalapa, Puebla, Ecate- pec; Leo´n; Fig 4). Hermosillo, Jua´rez, and Chihuahua (located in the northern region of Mexico) exhibited the highest multivariate risk than the other Mexican municipalities (Fig 4), which is driven mainly for future urbanization and UHI than projected shifts in annual mean temperature because there are no substantial differences between the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 sce- narios (Fig 4). The municipalities in the central region of Mexico (i.e., Iztapalapa, Puebla, Eca- tepec; Leo´n; Fig 4) exhibit high multivariate risk due to projected temperatures and UHI, but not large increments in future urbanization because they are already highly urbanized (Figs 3 and 4; Table D in S1 Data). It is crucial to notice the similarities between the BAU and the WRT scenarios (Fig F in S1 Appendix), which suggest that UHI and future climate change will create increasing and differentiated pressures on biodiversity in large cities (Table D in S1 Data). For instance, the diversification between scenarios in the municipalities located south- east of Mexico is more related to differences between the RCP2.6 and 8.5 than the other two elements. These municipalities, with the highest multivariate risk, have high species richness,

largest urban areas, increased protected areas, and large urban density and development (Figs 3 and 4). These municipalities are concentrated in three states (Distrito Federal, Mexico, and Jalisco). Furthermore, we did not find evidence for a geographical pattern in the relationship Fig 4. Scatter-plot of multivariate risks and residual species richness across 389 Mexican municipalities grouped in eight clusters under two land-use change scenarios (business-as-usual and worst/pessimistic) and two greenhouse gases emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) for a time horizon centered in 2070: a) BAU and RCP 2.6; b) BAU and RCP 8.5; c) WRT and RCP 2.6; d) WRT and RCP 8.5. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308522.g004 PLOS ONE Urban biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308522 October 4, 2024 11 / 19