Drivers of urban biodiversity in Mexico and joint risks from future urban expansion, climate change, and urban heat island effect

Multivariate future risk Municipalities in the north of Mexico (e.g., Hermosillo, Jua´rez, and Chihuahua) are projected to be the most affected by the combination of increasing temperature, urban expansion, and UHI (Fig 3). Municipalities located in the Valley of Mexico (e.g., Iztapalapa, Puebla, Ecatepec, Gustavo A. Madero) also will face higher risks in the future (Table D in S1 Data). The highest rates of future urban growth occur in municipalities located in different geographic regions (Fig 3). For instance, the worst or pessimistic scenario of urban expansion is projected to occur in Hermosillo, Centro, Los Cabos, Chihuaha, Santiago, Atizapa´n, Tuxtla Gutierrez, Que- re´taro, Monterrey, Tlalpan, Me´rida, Saltillo, La Paz. Some of these municipalities are located in touristic places (e.g., Los Cabos, Me´rida), and it will be necessary to implement urban planning policies to reduce the potential impacts from UHI and climate change. We did not find Fig 3. Projected shifts in temperature, urbanization, and current urban heat island (UHI) effects across 389 Mexican municipalities for two emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and two land-use change scenarios (Business as usual and worst/pessimistic). The urban heat island effect was estimated based on the total population (see main text for details). The red dashed lines represent the third quartile value for shifts in temperature and urbanization. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308522.g003 PLOS ONE Urban biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures

PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0308522 October 4, 2024 10 / 19