Assessment of Red Sea temperatures in CMIP5 models for present and future climate

(AMI) in ˚C (right panel). (TIF) S9 Fig. Statistics of MHWs for present conditions (left column), scenario RCP4.5 (ensemble average, middle column) and associated uncertainties (ensemble STD, right column). (a-c) Average length of MHWs in days per year. (d-f) Annual mean Intensity (˚C). (g-i) Annual Accumulative mean Intensity (˚C � day). Note the colorbars for the future scenarios are differ- ent than for the present conditions. (TIF) S10 Fig. Projected SST anomaly for different subensembles according to different criteria (see Table 1). (TIF) S11 Fig. Simplified projections for the evolution of basin averaged SST. Assuming the mul- tidecadal oscillation identified by Krokos et al., (2019) continues along the 21st century, we test how the temperatures would change imposing different long term trends: The observed 20st century trend (in black), the trend observed during the satellite period (yellow) or the trend projected by models under scenario RCP8.5 (red). (TIF) S1 Table. Set of diagnostics to rank the performance of the models from the model outputs and the observational datasets for the period 1985–2005, for the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden (Outer Region) separately. (XLSX) S2 Table. Set of diagnostics to rank the performance of the models from the model outputs and the observational datasets for the period 1985–2005, for the Gulf of Aden (Outer Region). (XLSX) S3 Table. Change of the basin averaged sea surface temperature by the end of the century (2080–2100) respect to the present (1985–2005) of those GCM that fulfil at least one of the criterion (see Table 1).

(XLSX) S4 Table. Statistics of MHWs for each selected GCM. Average length of MHWs (DMHW, in days/year), Annual Mean Intensity (AMI, in ˚C/year) and Annual Acumulative Mean Intensity (AAMI, in ˚C x day/year). Results are presented for the present climate (1985–2015) and for projected future conditions under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 2080– 2100. (XLSX) Acknowledgments We thank marine biologists and physical oceanographers who have collected data and ana- lysed the Red Sea mechanisms for the last decades. We specially acknowledge the support of the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), for providing data and knowledge about the temperature evolution and biology interactions of the Red Sea. We also thank Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA, UIB/CSIC) and the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO/CSIC) for providing the computational resources to address the goals of this work. PLOS ONE Assessment of Red Sea temperatures in CMIP5 models for present and future climate PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255505 July 30, 2021 23 / 26