Climate change: A pointer to increased small-scale fisher drowning deaths

periods of bad weather may thus particularly exacerbate risks as the need to generate income pushes people to fish in risky conditions. While our study did not estimate the fisher drowning incidence, previous studies in Lake Victoria have suggested fishers face a 1.4% risk of drown- ing deaths [3] and indicated events of nearly capsizing (57.8%) and actually capsizing (21.7%) are shockingly common [10]. Our findings indicate that actions across multiple levels of stake- holders are imperative to improve water safety skills and utilize multiple safety measures to prevent fisher drowning deaths. Communities in the Lake Victoria basin lack effective weather advisory and warning sys- tems [21]. However, our stakeholder analysis and other studies in the Lake Victoria region [21, 48] indicate that weather warning systems present an opportunity to counter drowning Table 3. Stakeholder analysis matrix around the development of a comprehensive policy on fisher drowning. Stakeholders Impact How much does fisher drowning impact them? Influence/ Power How much influence do they have over fisher drowning? What is important to the stakeholder? How could the stakeholder contribute to an intervention? How could the stakeholder block the project? 1. Boat Crew High Medium • Earning a decent income and providing for their families • Safety education and training to reduce risk • Safe vessels and/or responsible boat owners • Affordable, comfortable safety equipment, including life jackets • Accurate, accessible weather forecasting • Protection from crime (e.g., robbery, piracy)

• Fast, free search-and-rescue response • Set example and motivate peers by practicing safe behaviors (e.g., wear life jacket; not use alcohol in lake) • Report unsafe boat condition or insufficient life-saving equipment to relevant authorities, e.g., BMU • Organize (e.g., unions) to negotiate safe conditions with boat owners, and better treatment and support from authorities, etc. • Representatives participate in national water safety plan development • Disregard safety rules, not use safety equipment, etc. E.g., due to poverty, low risk perception, social norms, conflicting beliefs, discomfort • Overcoming fear of dangers in lake work with additional risks, e.g., by using alcohol/drugs 2. Boat Owners High High • Earning income from fishing equipment and/or boat rentals • Affordable and effective materials for boat construction • Meeting legal requirements for safety of boat and its equipment • Participate in safety trainings • Provide sufficient safety equipment in boats (e.g., life jackets, fire extinguisher, life rings) •Make/purchase/maintain safe boats • Not provide adequately safe boats, safety equipment, or boat maintenance, e.g., to save money • Fail to properly maintain or repair boats 3. Boat Makers Medium Medium • Earning a decent income • Good building materials, e.g., timber • Timely payment by boat owners • Making a boat to meet local standards (craftsmen) • Participate in training on building safe boats • Build safe boats • Not build safe boats, e.g., due to insufficient knowledge or motivation 4. Beach Management Units (BMUs)

High High • Fisher and boat registration and licensing payments • Authority to make beach management decisions • Successful local commerce • Safe practices within the community • Participate in safety trainings • Raise awareness and advocate for fisher drowning prevention measures with all local stakeholders • Monitor safety regulations and intervene (e.g., with fishers or authorities) when they are not followed • Identify and ameliorate barriers to safe boating and following regulations • Not monitor, support, or follow-through to ensure boat owners and fishers use safe vessels, equipment, and practices, e.g., due to insufficient knowledge or attention (Continued) PLOS ONE Climate change and small-scale fisher drowning deaths PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0302397 May 22, 2024 9 / 16