Climate change: A pointer to increased small-scale fisher drowning deaths

communities around Lake Victoria [3, 10]. These risk factors (non-use of life jacket and navi- gation equipment, inability to swim) also co-occurred with bad weather at high rates (69.5%, 67.8%, and 42.4%, respectively) to jointly contribute to fatal drowning incidents. Such co- occurrence of risk factors suggests that fisher drowning deaths are often the result of constella- tion of risk factors coming together and cross-sectoral actions are imperative to mitigate the effect of extreme weather events, which are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency as the world’s climate becomes warmer [8]. In line with our findings, a study in Lake Albert, Uganda (one of the three countries border- ing Lake Victoria), indicates that perceived high costs of life jackets, limited knowledge, social norms and beliefs (e.g., distrust in jackets’ effectiveness, belief that it is women who should wear life jackets) were among the barriers of using life jackets [49]. To address costs, we sug- gest that targeting boat owners, as opposed to individual fishers, as those responsible to ensure life jacket availability may be the most salient approach given their higher incomes and norms around vessels needing to provide safety equipment. Studies in Lake Albert also suggest that enforcement, peer-led awareness campaigns and training were effective strategies to increase the use of lifejackets [49–52]. Encouraging fishers to motivate their peers’ compliance with reg- ulations on life jacket use, as indicated in our stakeholder analysis, therefore represents a key

opportunity to improve safety. While boats were largely seen as well maintained, motorized boats involved in drowning incidents (43.3%) was surprisingly high relative to the motorization rate of the entire Kenyan Lake Victoria fleet; just 16.5% of the fleet was motorized in the 2014 Lake Victoria Frame Sur- vey [15], though this number has likely risen. This finding suggests motorization may increase risks, with motorized vessels potential to travel further exposing them to greater risks in weather changing over time and distance from shore slowing rescues. Our findings suggest focusing on compliance (regulation and enforcement) among motorized vessels may be partic- ularly valuable. Fisher drowning victims were of an economically productive age (average of 33 years old), highlighting the potential for far-reaching societal implications of the loss of these individuals. Findings from the present study corroborates those of Kobusingye et al. [10] and Whitworth et al. [3] who found that the majority of drowning victims in the Ugandan and Tanzanian sides of Lake Victoria were under the age of 40. Males made up the bulk of our sample, which was expected given that fishing is dominated by men [15]. This finding is also consistent with several studies that suggest that the burden of occupational drowning is disproportionately high among men [53]. Our stakeholder analysis underlines how careful engagement across groups will be impera- tive to designing effective risk mitigation tools. This is critical since decisions about whether to

fish are made at multiple levels. BMUs permit fishing at an institutional level, boat owners act as managers of fishing crews and employ laborers, and individuals participate in fishing crews. Across these multiple levels, water safety and responses to storm warnings need to be aligned, normalized, and prioritized to improve fisher safety. Discussion across these stakeholders of findings regarding fisher drowning deaths and opportunities to improve safety will be a critical next step. The strategies that are taken up could respond to identified risk factors in a range of intensities, often described as ‘levels of intervention’ [54]. Levels of intervention range from monitoring the situation (e.g., collecting more detailed data on drowning deaths, particularly as weather conditions shift) and communication strategies (e.g., making fishers aware of key risk factors) to eliminating or restricting choices (e.g., sharply restricting fishing in certain weather conditions or mandating vessel safety gear). Many of the recommendations of the World Health Organization on drowning prevention (WHO) and the United Nations (UN) resolution on global drowning prevention [55, 56] are PLOS ONE Climate change and small-scale fisher drowning deaths PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0302397 May 22, 2024 11 / 16