Climate change: A pointer to increased small-scale fisher drowning deaths

risks in response to escalating climate change-related extreme weather events [9, 13, 14]. Examples from East Africa indicate that the design of these systems requires close collabora- tion between weather service offices, BMU officials, and community stakeholders [21]. As noted within our stakeholder analysis, fishers are balancing a complex set of risks and depen- dent on fishing for income. Water safety risks are coupled with risks related to insufficient income if fishing is skipped. Weather warnings would thus need to be timely and well-tuned in accuracy to convince fishers to forgo income. Combining state-of-the-art technology (by experts in weather service offices) with field observations (provided by community stakehold- ers) can ensure forecasting accuracy [21]. Use of various means of communication (e.g., radio broadcasters, local intermediaries, and via smartphones) can also ensure forecasts reach tar- geted users within fishing communities [21]. Alongside warning systems, there would also ide- ally be a safety net for fishers to access alternative livelihood opportunities during periods of bad weather. Our study revealed few fishers had life jackets (19.9%) or communication or navigation equipment (12.8%), and just over half knew how to swim (56.7%). Previous studies have found similar rates of use of life jackets and communication tools, and swimming ability in fishing Table 3. (Continued) Stakeholders Impact How much does fisher drowning impact them? Influence/ Power How much influence do they have over fisher drowning? What is important to the stakeholder?

How could the stakeholder contribute to an intervention? How could the stakeholder block the project? 5. Government a. National and/or County Government (1) Fisheries/water agencies: a) State Dept for Blue Economy b) Kenya Fisheries Service c) Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Inst. d) Kenya Maritime Authority (2) Kenya Metrological Department (3) Kenya Coast Guard Services (4) Kenya Wildlife Service (5) Kenya Police Medium Medium • Fisheries management, including BMU monitoring and law enforcement at the local level • Protecting and promoting strong, sustainable fisheries • Frequent lake patrols • Enforcement of safety regulations of fishing vessels, and safe behaviors by operators/passengers • Maritime communications (e.g., communication network, rescue coordination and training, and weather alerts) • Timely, accurate weather forecasts from Kenya Meteorological Department • Education and awareness of (a) fisheries and transport laws, regulations; (b) use of weather information; (c) small vessel operation, including water safety education, boat standards, emergency response • Provision of basic water safety education • Support for access to weather information • Regulation enforcement, including patrols and inspections, including high-risk, remote areas, to better support fishers and protect them from unsafe vessels and practices • Drowning prevention intervention evaluation (e.g., involving KMFRI) • Fast, free search and rescue responses • At the ministry level, participate in development and implementation of water safety plan • Not monitor, support, or

follow-through to ensure fishers use safe vessels, equipment, and practices, e.g., due to insufficient capacity/resources, disinterest, corruption, or conflict of interest b. Regional Government (e.g., Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization, Lake Victoria Basin Commission) Medium Medium • Establish communications system for safety on Lake Victoria and an East African Maritime Transport Strategy • Collect data to monitor changes in drowning risk factors and mortalities • Collaborate in advocacy and agenda-setting to reduce fisher drowning in Lake Victoria • Not engage in or prioritize fisher water safety initiatives Adapted from: Tools4Dev [46] and Plummer et al.[47] https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0302397.t003 PLOS ONE Climate change and small-scale fisher drowning deaths PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0302397 May 22, 2024 10 / 16