Climate change: A pointer to increased small-scale fisher drowning deaths

RESEARCH ARTICLE Climate change: A pointer to increased small- scale fisher drowning deaths Ranaivo A. RasolofosonID1,2,3*, Horace Owiti Onyango4,5, Fonda Jane Awuor5, Christopher Mulanda Aura5, Kathryn J. Fiorella2* 1 Duke University Marine Laboratory, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina, United States of America, 2 Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America, 3 School of the Environment, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 4 Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America, 5 Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya * ranaivo.rasolofoson@duke.edu (RAR); kfiorella@cornell.edu (KJF) Abstract Drowning is an overlooked public health concern and drowning risk is dependent on environ- mental risk factors. The preponderance of drowning deaths occurs in low- and middle- income countries. Small-scale fishers face high occupational risk of drowning. Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of storms, thereby exacerbating fishers’ risks and creating a need to examine the contribution of storms to fisher drowning deaths for the development of mitigation strategies. We examined this relationship between weather and fisher drowning deaths in Lake Victoria, which is Africa’s largest lake, a site of high fishing pressure, and where climate change is predicted to increase thunderstorms. We conducted

a verbal autopsy with people knowledgeable about recent fatal fisher drowning incidents to collect information about the deceased fishers and circumstances surrounding the incidents across 43 landing sites in the Kenyan shore of Lake Victoria. Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders also elucidated community perspectives on drowning risks. Fatal drown- ings were often attributed to bad weather (41.8%). Other risk factors, such as non-use of life jacket and navigation equipment, co-occurred with bad weather at high rates (69.5% and 67.8%, respectively) to jointly contribute to fatal drowning incidents. Such co-occurrence of risk factors indicates that actions across multiple risk factors can help mitigate the issue. Stakeholder analysis revealed a range of opportunities for improved communication of risks and action to mitigate risks across boat operators and manufacturers, as well as multiple levels of management. Across global small-scale fisheries, limited use of safety equipment and intensive fishing pressure may coincide with increases in extreme weather events, necessitating action to address current and mitigate future drowning risks to small-scale fishers. Introduction Drowning is a widely overlooked public health threat and a growing environmental issue, annually killing an estimated 236,000 people around the globe [1]. It is the third leading cause PLOS ONE PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0302397 May 22, 2024 1 / 16 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Rasolofoson RA, Onyango HO, Awuor FJ,

Aura CM, Fiorella KJ (2024) Climate change: A pointer to increased small-scale fisher drowning deaths. PLoS ONE 19(5): e0302397. https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pone.0302397 Editor: Jasmin C. Lawes, Surf Life Saving Australia, AUSTRALIA Received: August 21, 2023 Accepted: April 2, 2024 Published: May 22, 2024 Copyright: © 2024 Rasolofoson et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: Data for risk factors are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9. figshare.25460692. Metadata are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25460530. Data from the key informant interviews are presented in the stakeholder analysis (Table 3). Funding: This study was financially supported by the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability in the form of a small grant ("Reducing Climate Risk" (RCR)) received by RAR. This study was also financially supported by the National Science Foundation CNH2 in the form of a grant (NSF BCS#