Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia

fruit fly species, based on their performance along climatic gradients. While highly useful in furthering our understanding of climate impacts on fruit flies, these studies have either focused on other countries or have explored global patterns of the distribution of suitable climate [22– 26]. Here we assess how climate change may result in shifts to the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for the 11 high priority fruit fly species present in Australia, using the correla- tive SDM, Maxent [27]. This SDM has been used extensively to assess the distribution of suit- able habitat for a broad range of pests and invasive species [26, 28–31]. We also highlight areas at risk of pest range shifts, to guide Australia’s horticulture industries in developing effective monitoring and management strategies. Methodology Species occurrence data We collected occurrence data for the 11 species from five sources: the Australian Plant Pest Data- base (APPD; http://www.planthealthaustralia.com.au/resources/australian-plant-pest-database, accessed 15th March 2017), the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA; http://www.ala.org.au, 22nd December, 2016), the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, https://www.gbif.org, 28th June, 2017, see S1 File for DOIs), trap data, and existing literature. APPD is a national digital Table 1. Eleven economically-significant tephritid pest species present in Australia. Species Common name Geographical Range Major Commercial Hosts [32] References Bactrocera aquilonis (May) Northern Territory fruit fly

Top End of the Northern Territory (NT), northern areas of Western Australia Bell pepper, tomato, lemon, mandarin, grapefruit, apple, mango, peach [1] Bactrocera bryoniae (Tryon) N/A Torres Strait Islands, mainland Queensland, northern Western Australia, NT, NSW as far south as Sydney Chilli, tomato [3] Bactrocera halfordiae (Tryon) Halfordia fruit fly North Queensland to the Sydney region in NSW Citrus [3] Bactrocera jarvisi (Tryon) Jarvis’ fruit fly Northwest Western Australia, NT, northwest Queensland, eastern Australia from Cape York to Sydney, NSW Mango, peach, banana, pear, apple, pawpaw, persimmon [3] Bactrocera kraussi (Hardy) Krauss’ fruit fly Torres Strait Islands, northeast Queensland as far south as Townsville Grapefruit, mandarin, orange, mango, peach and banana [3, 7] Bactrocera musae (Tryon) Banana fruit fly Torres Strait Islands, northeast Queensland as far south as Townsville Banana [3, 7] Bactrocera neohumeralis (Tryon) Lesser Queensland fruit fly Torres Strait Islands, eastern Queensland, northern NSW Mango, pawpaw, persimmon, avocado, banana, passionfruit, apple, apricot, plum, peach, citrus, capsicum, chilli, tomato [3] Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) Queensland fruit fly (Qfly) Central and Top End of NT, eastern Australia, Victoria Mango, pawpaw, avocado, grapefruit, passionfruit, strawberry, peach, pear, apple, banana, persimmon, chilli, capsicum, tomato, eggplant [3,31] Zeugodacus cucumis (French) (formerly Bactrocera cucumis) Cucumber fruit fly Eastern Queensland, northeast NSW, NT Cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, squash,

passionfruit, tomato, pawpaw [3] Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Schiner) Mango fruit fly Native to Papua New Guinea and surrounding islands, spread to Torres Strait Islands and northern Queensland as far south as Townsville Mango, banana, passionfruit, citrus, chilli [7] Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) Native to Africa, spread to the Mediterranean regions, Western Australia, occasional detections in South Australia and NT are eradicated. Mango, pawpaw, apple, peach, pear, citrus [3, 28, 31] Eleven tephritid pest species present in Australia, including nine natives (B. aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Z. cucumis) and two introduced species (B. frauenfeldi and C. capitata), and their major commercial hosts. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213820.t001 Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213820 February 13, 2020 3 / 19