Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia

10. De Meyer M, Copeland R, Wharton R, McPheron B. On the geographic origin of the Medfly Ceratitis capitata (Weidemann)(Diptera: Tephritidae). Proceedings of the 6th International Fruit Fly Symposium, Stellenbosch, South Africa. 2002:45–53. 11. White IM, Elson-Harris MM. Fruit flies of economic significance: their identification and bionomics: CAB International; 1992. 12. Permkam S, Hancock D. Australian Ceratitinae (Diptera: Tephritidae). Invertebrate Systematics. 1994; 8(6):1325–1341. 13. Dominiak BC, Mapson R. Revised distribution of Bactrocera tryoni in eastern Australia and effect on possible incursions of Mediterranean fruit fly: development of Australia’s eastern trading block. Journal of Economic Entomology. 2017; 110(6): 2459–2465. https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/tox237 PMID: 29040591 14. Plant Health Australia. Prevent fruit fly. Fruit Fly Research. 2016. 15. Abdalla A, Millist N, Buetre B, Bowen B. Benefit-cost analysis of the national fruit fly strategy action plan. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra; 2012. 16. PHA. Economic assessment of the implementation of the proposed National Fruit Fly Strategy: Part 1 (Plant Health Australia, August, Canberra., 2009). 17. Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority. Dimethoate Residues and Dietary Risk Assessment Report. August 2011. 18. Clarke AR, Powell KS, Weldon CW, Taylor PW. The ecology of Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae): what do we know to assist pest management? Annals of Applied Biology. 2011; 158(1):26–54.

19. Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority. Fenthion Residues and Dietary Risk Assess- ment Report. September 2012. 20. Dominiak BC, Ekman JH. The rise and demise of control options for fruit fly in Australia. Crop Protec- tion. 2013; 51:57–67. 21. Jessup A, Dalton S, Slogget R. Determination of host status of table grapes to Queensland fruit fly, ’Bactrocera tryoni’ (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae), for export to New Zealand. General and Applied Entomology: The Journal of the Entomological Society of New South Wales. 1998; 28:73–75. 22. Stephens AEA, Stringer LD, Suckling DM. Advance, retreat, resettle? Climate change could produce a zero-sum game for invasive species. Austral Entomology. 2016; 55:177–184. 23. Hill MP, Bertelsmeier C, Clusella-Trullas S, Garnas J, Robertson MP, Terblanche JS. Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change. Biological Invasions. 2016; 18(4):1105–1119. 24. Kriticos D. Risks of establishment of fruit flies in New Zealand under climate change. New Zealand For- est Research Institute, Rotorua; 2007. 25. Vera MT, Rodriguez R, Segura DF, Cladera JL, Sutherst RW. Potential geographical distribution of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae),m with emphasis on Argentina and Aus- tralia. Environmental entomology. 2002; 31(6):1009–1122. 26. Aguilar G, Blanchon D, Foote H, Pollonais C, Mosee A. Queensland fruit fly invasion of New Zealand:

predicting area suitability under future climate change scenarios. Perspectives in Biosecurity Research Series 2015; 2:1–13. 27. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distribu- tions. Ecological Modelling. 2006; 190(3):231–259. 28. Kumar S, Neven LG, Yee WL. Evaluating correlative and mechanistic niche models for assessing the risk of pest establishment. Ecosphere. 2014; 5(7):1–23. 29. Kumar S, Neven LG, Yee WL. Assessing the potential for establishment of Western Cherry Fruit Fly using ecological niche modeling. Journal of Economic Entomology. 2014; 107(3):1032–1044. https:// doi.org/10.1603/ec14052 PMID: 25026662 30. Kumar S, Neven LG, Zhu H, Zhang R. Assessing the global risk of establishment of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche models. Journal of Economic Entomology. 2015; 108(4):1708–1719. https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/tov166 PMID: 26470312 31. Kumar S, Yee WL, Neven LG. Mapping global potential risk of establishment of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) using MaxEnt and CLIMEX niche models. Journal of Economic Entomology. 2016; 109(5):2043–2053. https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/tow166 PMID: 27452001 32. Australian horticulture statistics handbook. Horticulture Innovation Australian Limited 2016/17 (www. horticulture.com.au). 33. Dominiak BC, Daniels D. Review of the past and present distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata Wiedemann) and Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt) in Australia. Australian Jour-

nal of Entomology. 2012; 51(2):104–115. Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213820 February 13, 2020 17 / 19