Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia

suitable. While our result for Medfly is similar to that obtained from CLIMEX and Principle Components Analysis [25, 58], the model GARP projected a far broader potential distribution in Australia for this species [58], while Szyniszewska and Tatem’s [63] Maxent model sug- gested more of Queensland may be suitable, compared to our analysis. Competition with Qfly may be responsible for exclusion of Medfly from much of Queensland [25], and similar biotic interactions may suppress the species elsewhere [13]. However, Medfly may be more tolerant to low temperatures and dry summers than Qfly [4], rendering Medfly the stronger competitor in areas with these conditions. Medfly was recorded in Tasmania in the 1920s but reportedly failed to survive an unseasonably hot and dry summer [4]. Due to their age, these records were not used to calibrate our model, yet our projections indicate that Tasmania continues to have conditions suitable for this species. Allwood and Angeles [64] reported that B. jarvisi is recognized as a pest in north-western Australia, infesting mango, guava and pomegranates (as reported in [65]). Dominiak and Fig 2. Hotspot maps of habitat suitability for the 11 fruit fly species under climate change, when novel environments are excluded. Hotspot maps of baseline (1960–1990) and future habitat suitability for 11 fruit flies. Suitability was modelled with Maxent, and thresholded using the 10th percentile at training presence localities. These maps exclude regions containing novel environments (see S1

File for individual species maps with novel environments excluded). Colours indicate the number of species for which habitat is projected to be suitable under the majority (� 4) future climate scenarios. Figure was created in R version 3.3.3 [57] (https://www.R- project.org/). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213820.g002 Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213820 February 13, 2020 12 / 19