Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia

RESEARCH ARTICLE Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia Sabira SultanaID1,2*, John B. Baumgartner1,3, Bernard C. Dominiak4, Jane E. Royer5, Linda J. Beaumont1 1 Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia, 2 Department of Zoology, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 3 Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (CEBRA), School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia, 4 New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Orange, New South Wales, Australia, 5 Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Biosecurity Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia * sabira.sultana@hdr.mq.edu.au Abstract Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Austra- lia’s multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilo- nis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia’s horticulture through in-farm manage- ment, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suit- ability for these 11 species under baseline (1960–1990) and future climate scenarios for

Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suit- able climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expan- sion in the future our study may guide Australia’s horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies. Introduction Tephritid fruit flies are one of the most destructive and economically significant pest insect families, attacking a wide range of fruit and vegetables. While the family contains more than 4000 species, around 350 are recognized as economically important horticultural pests [1] that have significant impacts on global horticultural production and market access. In Australia, the average annual value of crops susceptible to fruit flies is ~$4.8 billion [1], and the National Fruit Fly Strategy has identified 46 species as ‘high priority pests’ [2] of concern. The majority of these species are exotic to Australia, primarily found in South-East Asia and the South PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213820 February 13, 2020 1 / 19 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111

a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Sultana S, Baumgartner JB, Dominiak BC, Royer JE, Beaumont LJ (2020) Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia. PLoS ONE 15(2): e0213820. https://doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0213820 Editor: Nikos T. Papadopoulos, University of Thessaly School of Agricultural Sciences, GREECE Received: March 1, 2019 Accepted: January 22, 2020 Published: February 13, 2020 Copyright: © 2020 Sultana et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: Data availability The findings of our study were supported by publicly available data sourced from the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA; http://www.ala.org.au, 22nd December, 2016) and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, https://www.gbif.org, 28th June, 2017). Additionally, we sourced data from the Australian Plant Pest Database (APPD; http://www.planthealthaustralia.com.au/resources/ australian-plant-pest-database, accessed 15th March 2017) and from Australian State Government department collections (Biosecurity and Food Safety, Department of Primary