Does climate help modeling COVID-19 risk and to what extent?

undetermined (black) polarity of variables correlated with COVID-19 transmission. Relative ranking per analytic method is indicated by integers enclosed within parentheses. For the sta- tistical analysis, we report the median magnitude of Spearman’s coefficient, and we rank the results based on their absolute value. For the machine learning analysis, we relay feature importance and its ranking as the mean absolute SHAP value. For the econometric analysis, we look at the significance of each estimated regression coefficient and we rank them based on their magnitude normalized with reference to their standard error. As discussed in the Table 5. Panel data fixed-effects model—testing the effect of restrictions. Dependent variable: (1) (2) (3) (4) Daily cases (log) days_from_start 0.006��� 0.006��� 0.006��� 0.006��� (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Temperature_7 0.024��� 0.020��� 0.022��� 0.017��� (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Absolute Humidity_7 -0.028 -0.023 -0.028 -0.021 (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Pressure_7 -0.024��� -0.025��� -0.025��� -0.023��� (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Wind speed_7 0.030 0.030 0.029 0.031 (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Rainfall_7 -0.013 -0.010 -0.013 -0.013 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Short-wave irradiation_7 -0.000 -0.000 -0.000 -0.000 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) PM2P5_7 0.002 0.004 0.001 0.001 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) PM10_7 -0.003 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) UV_7 -0.376�� -0.374�� -0.372�� -0.362�� (0.17) (0.17) (0.17) (0.17) High_stringency_7 -0.087 (0.07)

High_stringency_14 -0.273��� (0.07) High_containment_7 -0.176��� (0.07) High_containment_14 -0.388��� (0.07) Constant 28.414��� 28.456��� 28.351��� 26.469��� (4.28) (4.23) (4.36) (4.20) Observations 19,289 19,289 19,289 19,289 R2 0.733 0.736 0.734 0.741 Adjusted R2 0.732 0.736 0.733 0.740 Results only for the Canadian territories and the United States. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at location (country/region) level, � p < 0.10, �� p < 0.05, ��� p < 0.01. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273078.t005 PLOS ONE Does climate help modeling COVID-19 risk and to what extent? PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273078 September 7, 2022 20 / 27