Climate change risk perception in the USA and alignment with sustainable travel behaviours

difference between liberals and conservatives regarding what they expect to be the main energy sources [63]. This could suggest that Democrats and Republicans may have similar expecta- tions of how climate change will affect the future; however, this would need to be further explored in future studies. Do participants visualize travel in 2050 as becoming more environmentally sustainable? The previous section revealed that 44% of participants were very concerned about climate change and another 30% were somewhat concerned. We wanted to see if this concern trans- lated into an expectation of a future with lower carbon travel. Of our participants, 29% (n = 310) described travel in the year 2050 as becoming more environmentally sustainable. For comparison other popular depictions of future travel included the idea that it would be faster (30%, n = 323) and that there would be driverless vehicles/more automation (22%, n = 231). A Spearman’s correlation found participants’ levels of concern about climate change concern was weakly correlated to whether they discussed future travel as becoming more environmen- tally sustainable (r(1049) = 0.142 p < 0.001) with people who were more concerned about cli- mate change being more likely to describe future travel as being more environmental sustainable in 2050. These results suggest that being concerned about climate change might influence some people’s expectations regarding future travel. There are two reasons why it would be beneficial to have people expecting a low carbon

mobility future. First, if individuals think of low carbon mobility as inevitable they may be less resistant to change. Englehardt et al. noted that perceived inevitability is linked to public acceptance [64]. Perceived inevitability was one reason given by Americans for why they changed their views regarding same-sex marriage [65]. Herek suggested that attitude change regarding inevitability could result from trying to fit into changing social norms [65]. If people start perceiving low carbon mobility systems as being an inevitable change due to a shift in social values their attitudes regarding high and low carbon systems might change so that they fit in with social norms. The roles of values and social norms in determining attitudes and behaviours is widely described [66, 67]. Our results are consistent with the role of environmen- tal values and social norms in contributing to increased sustainability of travel behaviours. A second reason it would be beneficial to have people expecting a low carbon mobility future is that if individuals expect future mobility to transition to low carbon systems they may adopt low carbon technology sooner. For example, if an individual expects mobility systems to switch from petrol to electricity, they may be more inclined to purchase an electric vehicle the next time they buy a car. Studies profiling early adopters of electric vehicles have not included perceptions of future mobility systems in their investigations, making it difficult to determine the extent to

which perceived inevitability may influence purchase behaviours. However, studies have found environmental attitudes to be an important predictor of purchasing electric vehicles [68–70]. Of the factors we tested in our models, environmental beliefs were the best predictor of an individual’s level of climate change concern. Interestingly, 29% of our study’s participants agreed with the pro-environmental statements provided–the same percentage of participants that described future travel as becoming lower carbon. However, environmental beliefs were not correlated to whether participants discussed future travel as becoming more environmen- tally sustainable (Spearman’s, N = 1071, p = 0.148). This suggests that both values being 29% is a coincidence and not simply that participants with strong environmental values were the same people who expected future travel to become more environmentally sustainable. Another predictor of climate change concern was technological optimism. The Avoid/Shift Improve framework argues that when transitioning to low carbon transportation we should be PLOS ONE Climate change risk perception in the USA and alignment with sustainable travel behaviours PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244545 February 3, 2021 11 / 17