Overtopping risk of high-hazard embankment dam under climate change condition

Ensemble approach To address the inherent uncertainty in future climate models we adopted an ensemble approach by combining outputs from the selected three Global Climate Models (GCMs): MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CM5A-LR at three different Representative Concentra- tion Pathways (RCPs) scenarios: 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Ensemble approaches using multiple GCMs are widely employed to address uncertainties in climate change projections and their impacts on flood risk [22, 30, 31]. This method is particularly pertinent for evaluating extreme values in risk assessments [22], which are crucial for assessing overtopping risks and flood scenarios. The ensemble approach enables us to capture a range of potential future climate scenarios by integrating outputs from different GCMs. Each GCM may vary in its sensitivity to various climate drivers, resulting in different projections of future climate conditions. By using an ensemble of GCMs, we can reduce the uncertainties associated with individual models and provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential future climates. By using this ensemble approach, our study provides a comprehensive assessment of the overtopping risks and flood scenarios under future climate conditions, addressing the uncer- tainties inherent in climate change projections. Hydrological analysis Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). PMP refers to the maximum rainfall that can accumulate in a given catchment area within a specified time and location [38] PMP is

Fig 3. Flowchart of the methodology to assess the overtopping risk due to climate change. The flow chart devided by 2 part, first part on data collection of historical data and projection climate change data, corrected by biased analysis and second part on hydrological analysis. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311181.g003 PLOS ONE Climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311181 February 27, 2025 7 / 32