Overtopping risk of high-hazard embankment dam under climate change condition

substantially increases the likelihood of dam overtopping and failure, especially under the high emissions RCP 8.5 scenario. Discussion and conclusions This study underscores the significant implications of climate change on the safety of embank- ment dams, particularly highlighting the increasing risk of overtopping under various climate scenarios. The analysis of historical data (1975–2019) and projections for the early, mid, and late 21st century under RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios reveals a clear trend of rising water lev- els and heightened overtopping risks. This study underscores the importance of integrating cli- mate change projections into dam safety management. The findings highlight the need for immediate and long-term adaptive strategies to address the increasing risks posed by higher inflows and potential overtopping. Ensuring the safety and resilience of embankment dams under future climate scenarios will require a combination of structural enhancements, rigorous monitoring, and adaptive management practices. Conse- quently, the dam owner must remain vigilant and prepared for future inflow events. Utilizing the future prediction inflow return period can serve as a basis for determining dam decision- making strategies to reduce the impact of discharge on the surrounding community. Ensuring the dam’s safety and resilience against changing climate scenarios is paramount to safeguard- ing the dam infrastructure and the people living downstream. Addressing this challenge requires a multi-faceted approach that integrates climate adaptation

strategies, infrastructure resilience measures, and robust emergency preparedness protocols. By implementing proactive measures, monitoring systems, and structural upgrades, stakeholders can effectively mitigate the risk of dam overtopping and enhance the safety of communities and eco- systems downstream. Collaboration between government agencies, engineering professionals, and local communities is essential to navigate the complex dynamics of climate change and ensure the sustainable management of embankment dam at Batu Dam, in Malaysia. Fig 13. IDF Curve of Late Century under scenario (a) RCP 4.5, (b) RCP 6.0, and (c) RCP 8.5. Rainfall Intensity vs. Duration for Various Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI), illustrating the decrease in intensity with longer storm durations across different ARI events, ranging from 1-year to 100,000-year return periods. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311181.g013 Fig 14. Example PMF simulation of Batu Dam. Flow vs. Time for Various Durations, highlighting peak discharge rates for rainfall events from 1 hour to 5 days. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311181.g014 PLOS ONE Climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311181 February 27, 2025 23 / 32