Overtopping risk of high-hazard embankment dam under climate change condition

Mid century. Figs 19–21 display the resultant inflow design at the mid-century for differ- ent return periods (ARIs) ranging from 1 year to 100000 years. The graph shows a trend in inflow design from scenario RCP 4.5 to RCP 8.5, indicating variations in water inflow over dif- ferent scenarios. Furthermore, by comparing the results with the PMF for each scenario, we observed the following findings: • In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the inflow for ARI 50000 is greater than the PMF value in RCP 4.5. • In the RCP 6.0 scenario, the inflow for ARI 50000 is greater than the PMF value in RCP 6.0. • In the RCP 8.5 scenario, the inflow for ARI 50 is greater than the PMF value in RCP 8.5. From these findings, we can deduce that for all three scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5), the inflow for ARI 50000 and ARI 50 is higher than the corresponding PMF values. This information is essential for understanding the potential risks of extreme flooding events under different climate change scenarios and designing appropriate flood protection measures for each scenario. The data highlights the significance of considering various climate change pro- jections when evaluating water inflow and planning for resilient infrastructure and flood man- agement strategies. Additionally, the inflow at ARI 50000 and ARI 50 might be more critical than the PMF value for each scenario, indicating the importance of preparing for these specific return periods. Late century Figs 22–24 display the resultant inflow design at the end of the century for different return

periods (ARIs) ranging from 1 year to 100000 years. The graph shows a trend in inflow design from scenario RCP 4.5 to RCP 8.5, indicating variations in water inflow over different scenarios. Furthermore, by comparing the results with the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) for each scenario, we observe the following findings: • In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the inflow for ARI 20000 is greater than the PMF value. • In the RCP 6.0 scenario, the inflow for ARI 50000 is greater than the PMF value. • In the RCP 8.5 scenario, the inflow for ARI 100 is greater than the PMF value. From these findings, we can deduce that for all three scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5), the inflow for specific return periods is higher than the corresponding PMF values. This information is crucial for understanding the potential risks of extreme flooding events at the end of the century under different climate change scenarios and designing appropriate flood protection measures for each scenario. The data highlights the significance of considering vari- ous climate change projections when evaluating water inflow and planning for resilient infra- structure and flood management strategies. Additionally, it suggests that specific return periods such as ARI 20000, ARI 50000, and ARI 100 may pose more significant challenges than the PMF value in their respective scenarios, indicating the importance of preparing for these specific return periods. Fig 11. IDF Curve of Early Century under scenario (a) RCP 4.5, (b) RCP 6.0, and (c) RCP 8.5. Rainfall Intensity vs.

Duration for Various Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI), illustrating the decrease in intensity with longer storm durations across different ARI events, ranging from 1-year to 100,000-year return periods. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311181.g011 PLOS ONE Climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311181 February 27, 2025 19 / 32