Overtopping risk of high-hazard embankment dam under climate change condition

presents the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) for various durations under different cli- mate scenarios across three time periods: Early Century (2020–2046), Mid Century (2047– 2073), and Late Century (2074–2100). The climate scenarios considered are Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The historical data from 1975–2019 is used as a baseline for comparison, across the 21st century. In the early century, under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, there is a noticeable increase in PMP values compared to the historical data. RCP4.5 shows the highest PMP value at 686.4 mm over five days of rainfall. However, in the mid-century, RCP6.0 surpasses RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, reaching the peak PMP value of 627.27 mm. Moving towards the late century, RCP6.0 again projects the highest PMP value of 660.53 mm, while RCP8.5 closely follows with 655.55 mm over a 5-day event. Interestingly, RCP4.5 exhibits a declining trend in PMP values as the century progresses, while RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 show an increasing trend towards the end of the 21st century. These trends offer valuable insights into the potential changes in extreme precipitation events throughout the century, emphasizing the role of varying greenhouse gas concentration trajectories and their associated climate scenarios represented by the RCPs. Fig 6. Monthly corrected projected rainfall (mm) for Kg. Sg. Tua station. a) Corrected monthly rainfall under RCP4.5 for Station Kg Sg Tua at Early Century b) Corrected monthly rainfall under RCP4.5 for Station Kg Sg Tua at

Mid Century c) Corrected monthly rainfall under RCP 4.5 for Kg Sg at Late Century. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311181.g006 PLOS ONE Climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311181 February 27, 2025 13 / 32