One hundred years of climate change in Mexico

Resources: Angela P. Cuervo-Robayo, Oswaldo Te´llez-Valde´s, Enrique Martı´nez-Meyer. Software: Oswaldo Te´llez-Valde´s. Supervision: Angela P. Cuervo-Robayo, Oswaldo Te´llez-Valde´s, Enrique Martı´nez-Meyer. Validation: Miguel A. Go´mez-Albores, Enrique Martı´nez-Meyer. Visualization: Angela P. Cuervo-Robayo. Writing – original draft: Angela P. Cuervo-Robayo, Carolina Ureta, Enrique Martı´nez- Meyer. Writing – review & editing: Angela P. Cuervo-Robayo, Carolina Ureta, Enrique Martı´nez- Meyer. References 1. Sala OE, Chapin FS, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, et al. (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287: 1770–1774. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770 PMID: 10710299 2. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Summary for policy makers. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.11.012 3. Thuiller W (2004) Patterns and uncertainties of species’ range shifts under climate change. Global change biology 10: 2020–2027. 4. Thuiller W, Albert C, Arau´jo MB, Berry PM, Cabeza M, et al. (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species´ distributions: Future challenges. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systemat- ics: 1–16. 5. Williams J, Jackson S, Kutzbach J (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. PNAS 104: 5738–5742. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0606292104 PMID: 17389402 6. Ureta C, Martorell C, Hortal J, Fornoni J (2012) Assessing extinction risks under the combined effects of

climate change and human disturbance through the analysis of life-history plasticity. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 14: 393–401. 7. Saunders DA, Hobbs RJ, Margules CR (1991) Biological consequences of ecosystem fragmentation: A review. 5: 18–32. 8. Guisan A, Petitpierre B, Broennimann O, Daehler C, Kueffer CJ (2014) Unifying niche shift studies: Insights from biological invasions. 29: 260–269. 9. IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G, Tignor M, Allen S, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V and Midgley M (Editors). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp 10. Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, et al. (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 462: 1052–1055. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08649 PMID: 20033047 11. Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Buckley LB, Moore P, Poloczanska ES, et al. (2011) The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science 334: 652–655. https://doi.org/10.1126/science. 1210288 PMID: 22053045 12. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very-high resolution interpolated cli- mate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965–1978. 13. Pecl GT, Arau´ jo MB, Bell JD, Blanchard J, Bonebrake TC, et al. (2017) Biodiversity redistribution under

climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science 355: eaai9214. https://doi.org/ 10.1126/science.aai9214 PMID: 28360268 14. Kriticos DJ, Webber BL, Leriche A, Ota N, Macadam I, et al. (2012) CliMond: Global high-resolution his- torical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 3: 53–64. 15. Sa´ enz-Romero C, Rehfeldt GE, Crookston NL, Duval P, St-Amant R, et al. (2010) Spline models of con- temporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation. Climatic Change 102: 595–623. PLOS ONE Historical climate change in Mexico PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0209808 July 16, 2020 16 / 19