Assessing the effects of agricultural intensification on natural habitats and biodiversity in Southern Amazonia

endemic mammals as well as threatened mammals. In the case of the Illegal Intensifcation Sce- nario especially small-ranged amphibian species, endemic mammals, and threatened amphib- ian species were strongly affected. The lowest negative effect was simulated in the case of the Sustainable Development Scenario. The highest decrease was calculated for threatened amphib- ians while the BII and threatened mammals decreased. All other BII values remained constant or even increased as is the case for small-ranged amphibians and small-ranged bird species. This slight increase can be attributed to the conversion of unused cropland cells to pasture cells. 3.3.2. Mato Grosso. Table 5 shows, the impact on species diversity in MT is more moder- ate in the case of the Trend Scenario compared to the situation in PA. The highest reduction of BII in MT was simulated in the case of the Trend Scenario. Here, threatened bird species, threatened mammals, and endemic mammals are especially affected. In the case of the Legal Intensification Scenrio, we see decreasing BII values for all taxa and cat- egories with the exception of small-ranged birds which remains constant. We found especially strong decreases for threatened mammals and threatened birds. Concerning the Illegal Intensi- fication Scenario, especially small-ranged amphibians, threatened mammals and threatened bird species are impacted strongly. Interestingly, the Sustainable Development Scenario in MT results in a strong negative impact. It becomes obvious that all taxa and categories are affected

Table 4. Changes of BII in Para´ between 2010 and 2030. taxon category Trend 2010 Trend 2030 rel. Change [%] LI 2030 rel. Change [%] ILI 2030 rel. Change [%] SD 2030 rel. Change [%] Amphibians endemic 0.79 0.71 -10.1 0.71 -10.1 0.73 -7.6 0.79 0 small-ranged 0.65 0.52 -20 0.53 -18.5 0.57 -12.3 0.66 1.5 threatened 0.59 0.49 -16.9 0.52 -11.9 0.53 -10.2 0.58 -1.7 Birds endemic 0.8 0.71 -11.3 0.71 -11.3 0.73 -8.8 0.8 0 small-ranged 0.85 0.77 -9.4 0.78 -8.2 0.78 -8.2 0.86 1.2 threatened 0.79 0.72 -8.9 0.73 -7.6 0.75 -5.1 0.79 0 Mammals endemic 0.79 0.68 -13.9 0.69 -12.7 0.71 -10.1 0.79 0 small-ranged 0.86 0.77 -10.5 0.78 -9.3 0.79 -8.1 0.86 0 threatened 0.79 0.65 -17.7 0.69 -12.7 0.72 -8.9 0.78 -1.3 (Trend = Trend Scenario, LI = Legal Intensification Scenario, ILI = Illegal Intensification Scenario, SD = Sustainable Development Scenario). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0225914.t004 Table 5. Changes of BII in Mato Grosso between 2010 and 2030. taxon category Trend 2010 Trend 2030 rel. Change [%] LI 2030 rel. Change [%] ILI 2030 rel. Change [%] SD 2030 rel. Change [%] Amphibians endemic 0.67 0.62 -7.6 0.66 -1.5 0.67 0 0.62 -7.5 small-ranged 0.56 0.54 -3.6 0.55 -1.8 0.36 -35.7 0.54 -3.6 threatened n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Birds endemic 0.66 0.6 -9.1 0.65 -1.5 0.67 1.5 0.61 -7.6 small-ranged 0.62 0.57 -8.1 0.62 0 0.6 -3.2 0.59 -4.8 threatened 0.59 0.51 -13.6 0.55 -6.8 0.5 -15.2 0.53 -10.2

Mammals endemic 0.63 0.57 -9.5 0.62 -1.6 0.64 1.6 0.59 -6.4 small-ranged 0.66 0.6 -9.1 0.65 -1.5 0.64 -3.0 0.63 -4.6 threatened 0.68 0.61 -10.3 0.63 -7.4 0.6 -11.8 0.63 -7.3 (Trend = Trend Scenario, LI = Legal Intensification Scenario, ILI = Illegal Intensification Scenario, SD = Sustainable Development Scenario). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0225914.t005 PLOS ONE Agricultural intensification effects on natural habitats and biodiversity PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0225914 November 25, 2020 13 / 21