Potential socioeconomic impacts from ocean acidification and climate change effects on Atlantic Canadian fisheries

RESEARCH ARTICLE Potential socioeconomic impacts from ocean acidification and climate change effects on Atlantic Canadian fisheries Tyler J. B. WilsonID1*, Sarah R. Cooley2, Travis C. Tai3, William W. L. Cheung3, Peter H. Tyedmers1 1 School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada, 2 Ocean Conservancy, Washington, DC, United States of America, 3 Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada * tjbwilson@dal.ca Abstract Ocean acidification is an emerging consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emis- sions. The full extent of the biological impacts are currently not entirely defined. However, it is expected that invertebrate species that rely on the mineral calcium carbonate will be directly affected. Despite the limited understanding of the full extent of potential impacts and responses there is a need to identify potential pathways for human societies to be affected by ocean acidification. Research on these social implications is a small but developing field. This research contributes to this field by using an impact assessment framework, informed by a biophysical model of future species distributions, to investigate potential impacts facing Atlantic Canadian society from potential changes in shellfish fisheries driven by ocean acidi- fication and climate change. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are expected to see declines in resource accessibility but are relatively socially insulated from these changes. Con-

versely, Prince Edward Island, along with Newfoundland and Labrador are more socially vulnerable to potential losses in fisheries, but are expected to experience relatively minor net changes in access. Introduction Ocean acidification (OA) is a facet of climate change driven by increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere and ocean [1,2]. Recognition of the potential for OA to act as a biological stressor in the marine environment has only been widely recognised in the past 15 to 20 years. Since then, research addressing its biological implications has expanded rapidly [2–4], suggesting the potential for wide-ranging effects on marine organisms and eco- systems. To date, findings have been highly variable with some species showing positive physi- ological responses while many others respond negatively; responses have also been seen to vary between populations of individual species [4,5]. Despite ranges of expected impacts, cur- rent understandings suggest that negative responses from marine species are likely to be more widespread than neutral or positive responses [3,4]. Furthermore, it is widely agreed that PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0226544 January 10, 2020 1 / 29 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Wilson TJB, Cooley SR, Tai TC, Cheung WWL, Tyedmers PH (2020) Potential socioeconomic impacts from ocean acidification and climate change effects on Atlantic Canadian fisheries. PLoS ONE 15(1): e0226544. https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pone.0226544

Editor: Juan A. Añel, Universidade de Vigo, SPAIN Received: September 17, 2018 Accepted: November 28, 2019 Published: January 10, 2020 Copyright: © 2020 Wilson et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files. Funding: TJBW, TCT, WWLC and PHT acknowledge the support from the Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network (MEOPAR) http://www.meopar. ca/ - under the Canadian Ocean Acidification Research Program (COARp) https://meopar.ca/ projects/cycle-ii-research/. TJBW also acknowledges scholarship support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council