Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity
pmc-PMC11637332.pdf · Phiên bản 1 · 16 trang
assets/Documents/our-work/environment-and-agriculture/climate-change-mitigation/emissions- trading/Supporting-native-plantation-forestry-in-the-NZ-ETS-final-report.pdf 50. King C. The costs and benefits of conservation versus logging of old-growth native forest: a case his- tory. Ecological Economics. 2023; 204: 107632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107632 51. Pohatu P, O’Brien S, Mercer L. Challenges and opportunities with native forestry on Māori land. 2020. Report No.: Motu Working Paper 20–13. Available: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/20_13.pdf 52. Essien SO, Baroutian S, Dell K, Young B. Value-added potential of New Zealand mānuka and kānuka products: a review. Industrial Crops and Products. 2019; 130: 198–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. indcrop.2018.12.083 53. Department of Conservation. Towards a predator free New Zealand: Predator Free 2050 strategy. Wel- lington, New Zealand: Department of Conservation; 2020. 54. Binny RN, Innes J, Fitzgerald N, Pech R, James A, Price R, et al. Long-term biodiversity trajectories for pest-managed ecological restorations: eradication vs. suppression. Ecological Monographs. 2021; 91: e01439. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1439 55. Peltzer DA, Bellingham PJ, Dickie IA, Houliston G, Hulme PE, Lyver PO, et al. Scale and complexity implications of making New Zealand predator-free by 2050. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zea- land. 2019; 49: 412–439. https://doi.org/10.1080/03036758.2019.1653940 56. Wotton DM, McAlpine KG. Seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited environmental weeds in New Zealand. New
Zealand Journal of Ecology. 2023;39. 57. Palmer A, McLauchlan L. Landing among the stars: risks and benefits of Predator Free 2050 and other ambitious conservation targets. Biological Conservation. 2023; 284: 110178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. biocon.2023.110178 58. Palmer S, Mercier OR, King-Hunt A. Towards rangatiratanga in pest management? Māori perspectives and frameworks on novel biotechnologies in conservation. Pacific Conserv Biol. 2020; 27: 391–401. https://doi.org/10.1071/PC20014 59. Kirk N, Kannemeyer R, Greenaway A, MacDonald E, Stronge D. Understanding attitudes on new tech- nologies to manage invasive species. Pac Conserv Biol. 2020; 26: 35. https://doi.org/10.1071/PC18080 60. Kannemeyer RL. A systematic literature review of attitudes to pest control methods in New Zealand. Manaaki Whenua—Landcare Research; 2017. Available: https://bioheritage.nz/wp-content/uploads/ 2019/04/2018-JAN-Pest-Control-attitudes-Literature-review.pdf 61. Ministry for the Environment, Stats NZ. New Zealand’s environmental reporting series: our atmosphere and climate 2023. 2023 p. 76. Available: environment.govt.nz 62. Ausseil A-G, van der Weerden T, Beare M, Teixeira E, Baisden T, Lieffering M, et al. Climate change impacts on land use suitability. Manaaki Whenua—Landcare Research; 2019 p. 90. Report No.: LC3573. 63. Lawrence J, Wreford A, Blackett P, Hall D, Woodward A, Awatere S, et al. Climate change adaptation through an integrative lens in Aotearoa New Zealand. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand.
2023; 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/03036758.2023.2236033 PMID: 39440121 64. Macinnis-Ng C, Ziedins I, Ajmal H, Baisden WT, Hendy S, McDonald A, et al. Climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand: a horizon scan approach. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand. 2024; 54: 523–546. https://doi.org/10.1080/03036758.2023.2267016 PMID: 39440125 PLOS ONE Conservation futures 2050 PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 14 / 16
65. Wyse S, Wilmshurst J, Burns B, Perry G. New Zealand forest dynamics: a review of past and present vegetation responses to disturbance, and development of conceptual forest models. NZ J Ecol. 2018; 42: 87–106. https://doi.org/10.20417/nzjecol.42.18 66. Keegan L, White R, Macinnis-Ng C. Current knowledge and potential impacts of climate change on New Zealand’s biological heritage. NZ J Ecol. 2022; 46: 3467. https://doi.org/10.20417/nzjecol.46.10 67. Ausseil AGE, Daigneault AJ, Frame B, Teixeira EI. Towards an integrated assessment of climate and socio-economic change impacts and implications in New Zealand. Environmental Modelling & Soft- ware. 2019; 119: 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.05.009 68. The Treasury, Ministry for the Environment. Ngā kōrero āhuarangi me te ōhanga: climate economic and fiscal assessment 2023. New Zealand Government; 2023 p. 98. Available: https://www.treasury.govt. nz/publications/climate-economic-fiscal-assessment/nga-koreroahuarangi-me-te-ohanga-2023 69. Arcaya M, Raker EJ, Waters MC. The social consequences of disasters: individual and community change. Annu Rev Sociol. 2020; 46: 671–691. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-121919-054827 70. Kannemeyer RL, Samarasinghe O, Awatere S. Climate change risks and adaptation tools for Aotearoa New Zealand’s cultural heritage. Manaaki Whenua—Landcare Research; 2023 Jun p. 75. Report No.: LC4302. 71. Ministerial Inquiry into Land Use in Tairāwhiti and Wairoa. Outrage to optimism: report of the Ministerial
Inquiry into land uses associated with the mobilisation of woody debris (including forestry slash) and sediment in Tairāwhiti/Gisborne District and Wairoa District. New Zealand: Ministerial Inquiry into Land Uses in Tairawhiti and Wairoa; 2023. Available: https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/ areas-of-work/land/ministerial-inquiry-into-land-use/ 72. Moyano J, Dimarco RD, Paritsis J, Peterson T, Peltzer DA, Crawford KM, et al. Unintended conse- quences of planting native and non-native trees in treeless ecosystems to mitigate climate change. Journal of Ecology. 2024; 1365–2745.14300. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14300 73. Bennett NJ, Whitty TS, Finkbeiner E, Pittman J, Bassett H, Gelcich S, et al. Environmental stewardship: a conceptual review and analytical framework. Environmental Management. 2018; 61: 597–614. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-017-0993-2 PMID: 29387947 74. Brondı´zio ES, Aumeeruddy-Thomas Y, Bates P, Carino J, Ferna´ndez-Llamazares A´ , Ferrari MF, et al. Locally based, regionally manifested, and globally relevant: indigenous and local knowledge, values, and practices for nature. Annu Rev Environ Resour. 2021; 46: 481–509. https://doi.org/10.1146/ annurev-environ-012220-012127 75. Dufour A. “Canada has a lot of unpaid bills”: $10B settlement reached in landmark First Nation treaty case. CBC News. 17 Jun 2023. Available: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/indigenous- communities-first-nations-ontario-broken-promise-1.6880423. Accessed 5 Apr 2024.
76. Alston E, Crepelle A, Law W, Murtazashvili I. The chronic uncertainty of American Indian property rights. Journal of Institutional Economics. 2021; 17: 473–488. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137420000636 77. Wellauer K, Williams C, Brennan B. “The Australian community couldn’t comprehend what it was”: Why the Voice failed. ABC News. 15 Oct 2023. Available: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-16/why- the-voice-failed/102978962. Accessed 5 Apr 2024. 78. Stevens N, Bond WJ. A trillion trees: carbon capture or fuelling fires? Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2024; 39: 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2023.09.015 PMID: 37845119 79. Brundu G, Pauchard A, Pysˇek P, Pergl J, Bindewald AM, Brunori A, et al. Global guidelines for the sus- tainable use of non-native trees to prevent tree invasions and mitigate their negative impacts. NB. 2020; 61: 65–116. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.61.58380 80. Schenuit F, Colvin R, Fridahl M, McMullin B, Reisinger A, Sanchez DL, et al. Carbon dioxide removal policy in the making: assessing developments in 9 OECD cases. Front Clim. 2021; 3: 638805. https:// doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.638805 81. Moyano J. Unintended consequences of planting native and non-native trees in treeless ecosystems to fight climate change. Journal of Ecology. 2024. 82. Spatz DR, Holmes ND, Will DJ, Hein S, Carter ZT, Fewster RM, et al. The global contribution of invasive vertebrate eradication as a key island restoration tool. Sci Rep. 2022; 12: 13391. https://doi.org/10. 1038/s41598-022-14982-5 PMID: 35948555
83. IPCC. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Summary for policymakers. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2021. 84. Lawrence J, Mackey B, Chiew F, Costello MJ, Hennessy K, Lansbury N, et al. Australasia. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2022. pp. 1581–1688. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844 PLOS ONE Conservation futures 2050 PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 15 / 16
85. MacLeod CJ, Moller H. Intensification and diversification of New Zealand agriculture since 1960: an evaluation of current indicators of land use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 2006; 115: 201–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2006.01.003 86. Dymond JR. Ecosystem services in New Zealand: conditions and trends. Manaaki Whenua Press; 2013. 87. McVittie A, Cole L, Wreford A, Sgobbi A, Yordi B. Ecosystem-based solutions for disaster risk reduction: lessons from European applications of ecosystem-based adaptation measures. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2018; 32: 42–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.12.014 PLOS ONE Conservation futures 2050 PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 16 / 16