Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity

elimination is achieved, costs of control and costs of intensive intervention for many rare and endangered species are expected to decrease, and new industries and technologies created in the process will provide future opportunities, assuming the sector can pivot once broad-scale predator control is complete. Many of the cost-benefit arguments made for this scenario assume eradication, however financial benefits may not accrue to the extent expected, particularly if efforts instead achieve suppression [57]. The involvement of community groups in predator control efforts can build engagement, a sense of community and place, and social license for conservation activities [57]. Growing populations and range of native species can also enable the renewal of cultural practices and empower stewardship for indigenous Māori [55]. The extent to which eradica- tion is successful, and the nature of the methods used to achieve or attempt it, will drive many of the social risks, including loss of social license because of high costs, lack of consensus and landowner and Māori consent, unintended consequences, or failure to achieve intended out- comes [55, 58]. Lethal control and the use of poisons can be particularly controversial, both domestically and internationally, and could result in social division and erosion of trust in public and scientific institutions [59, 60]. Increasing extreme weather events Extreme weather events increase in frequency, severity and scale, including droughts, fire and

storms causing flooding, erosion, windfall and landslides [61]. In addition to point-in-time disruption and destruction, recurring extreme events drive broadly predictable shifts in land use and socio-economic patterns [62]. These changes provide opportunities to prioritize and value ecosystem services and integrity, or to apply new technology to reduce human impacts and improve resilience [63, 64]. Some species will benefit from increasing disturbance, both in their population growth and spread, including native and non-native species [65]. However, increased frequency and severity of mortality events for many species, and fragmentation and disruption of ecosystems, pose the greatest environmental risks, potentially leading to species decline and loss of ecosystem services [21, 66]. Observed increases in weather extremes create policy opportunities by increasing public support and prioritization of climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience planning, which can reduce costs and damage over time [63]. Economic opportunities include new jobs and work arrangements to flexibly adapt to changing conditions, as well as the poten- tial for adaptive policy and management to mitigate financial impacts [67]. However, lags between needs and policy development, excessive demands on funding and resources from multiple, potentially overlapping, crises as well as increasing uncertainty all hinder effective policy development and implementation and risk exacerbating negative impacts [68]. Risks generally outweigh opportunities economically, with high direct costs and

subsequent debt, decline in production and productivity, and disruption from forced migration. Crises can create social opportunities to increase community cohesion [69]. Approaches that emphasize individual and indigenous Māori empowerment can also counter the mental health impacts of these crises and improve decision-making [69, 70]. Increasing extreme events pose serious social risks, however, including increased risk of physical and mental harm, decreased capacity for aid and government agencies to respond, decreased commu- nity capacity, and increased inequalities [69, 71]. This may be exacerbated by forced migra- tion, where communities and traditional lands can no longer be inhabited or used in the ways they have been, disrupting social networks and increasing isolation and disaffection [70]. PLOS ONE Conservation futures 2050 PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 8 / 16