Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity

from the literature or from the experience of the participants. Each scenario is built around a specific trend or future development which represents a significant departure from the status quo, and the potential opportunities and risks for environmental, policy, economic and social factors were identified. We discuss the pathways leading to each scenario and explore the impacts of the scenario, including uncertainties and a range of possible outcomes. Results We developed four different scenarios in detail. Within each scenario, we discussed the possi- ble pathway to 2050 and the range of direct and indirect effects, uncertainties, counter-intui- tive effects and context-dependencies. Summary narratives for each scenario are presented below. These provide a brief description of the most important and most likely effects, while the full scenario descriptions explore the range of more complex possible outcomes. For those interested in using these scenarios in their own planning exercises, the detailed descriptions are available online [37]. Māori land tenure Increased Māori land tenure and representation can come through Treaty settlements, trust or corporation-owned land including through private sales, or consultation and policy-driven co-governance over Crown-held land. Māori land is currently legally classified by use and management, with separate categories for land managed in accordance with tikanga (Māori customs), freehold land and land designated for specific uses, such as for historical or spiritual

reasons [38]. These mechanisms represent a range of autonomy in decision-making, access to funding, and condition and possible use of land [30, 31, 39]. Under this scenario, environmen- tal opportunities include the use of indigenous knowledge to renew cultural practices and improve ecological connectivity between people and environment (i.e. biocultural renewal) [35, 40]. Key environmental risks include constraints caused by lack of funding or the need for income generation and the effects of climate change, as well as the disruptive effects of changes in management regimes [39, 41]. Increased biculturalism and decentralization can provide policy opportunities, but existing systems and capacity limits may prevent the realisation of Māori aspirations, exacerbate inequalities and limit coordination [30, 42]. Economic shifts will depend on the extent to which land use changes with increased Māori control or influence and the extent to which current sys- temic barriers are removed. Opportunities could include diversification and new products based on native species and cultural traditions with an increased emphasis on profits returning to local communities [41, 43]. However, the uncertainties and lag time between developing new land uses and seeing economic benefits, as well as increased demand on Māori time and resources, pose risks for economic loss and may limit the extent of any changes [30, 43]. For example, multiple ownership on Māori land is difficult to reconcile with current systems and

therefore limits access to finance, hinders land use decisions and complicates governance [38]. Similarly, social changes for Māori will be driven by the extent to which land tenure is accompa- nied by cultural renewal and new social and legal opportunities to decrease inequalities and pro- mote biculturalism, all of which could benefit Māori substantially [40, 44]. However, the process of shifting land tenure risks creating conflicts over land boundaries and management goals and driving disaffection and polarisation in people who feel threatened by the change. Native afforestation Since human arrival, three quarters of indigenous forest cover has been lost nationally, much of which has been converted to commercial pasture and forestry plantations using non-native PLOS ONE Conservation futures 2050 PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 6 / 16