Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity

diversity of participants to capture developments in a range of fields [15]. Due to the time com- mitment involved, we were not able to engage any current land managers or practitioners directly, but many participants had experience working directly with practitioners. To encour- age participation from people across this range of backgrounds and career stages, many key processes in the scenario development were either completely anonymous, or individual iden- tity was only visible to the organizers (JLB and AJB), and other stages of the process focused on working in small groups. We asked each participant to propose at least one potential future scenario for 2050 based on their knowledge and trends in their field of expertise. We then col- lated the proposed scenario descriptions to reconcile similar ideas, with a final list of 10 poten- tial scenarios for consideration (available at [37]). To feasibly explore the scenarios in detail, we selected a subset of contrasting scenarios for further development. The participants voted anonymously for their top three choices and explained their reasoning. Four scenarios clearly had more support than the others, and often could incorporate ideas from the other six pro- posals, so these four were selected for further development. Our chosen scenarios focused on: Māori land tenure, native afforestation, predator eradication and extreme climate events (Table 1). These four scenarios together covered a range of possible dynamics, included major

national trends the group considered highly relevant, and were plausible but required a stretch in thinking from business as usual. We convened a one-day workshop with the participants to discuss and develop the selected scenarios (Fig 1). Each participant was given a matrix beforehand which asked them to con- sider policy and management, economic, social and environmental implications for each sce- nario, including new drivers and trends, exacerbated dynamics and indirect or cascading effects (available at [37]). Participants were encouraged to discuss the scenarios with colleagues and gather opinions and ideas from others. We compiled, anonymized and summarized feed- back before the workshop and then discussed these ideas further in person, challenging and consolidating our ideas and building a picture of the way the changes we identified would most likely affect society and environmental management. We used a scenario workshop for- mat to engage and stimulate creativity and build collaborations by splitting into small groups for brainstorming, using semi-structured questions, open sketches and diagrams, and free- form conversation. From the ideas and issues discussed and text developed in the workshop, we then generated a detailed written narrative, and accompanying summary, for each scenario. This was done by synthesizing the key points raised in the contributions both before and during the workshop, with an emphasis on those points that participants felt were most important, or that were ech-

oed by multiple participants. We also considered which points could be supported by examples Table 1. Brief description of four future scenarios for Aotearoa New Zealand in 2050. Each scenario was consid- ered and developed in detail. Full scenario description and potential implications are available online [37]. Scenario Name Brief Description Māori Land Tenure As a result of Treaty settlements and changes in governance structure, indigenous Māori communities manage large tracts of land and Māori are consistently represented in land management decision-making locally and nationally. Native Afforestation Native production forest replaces the use of non-native (exotic) trees for commercial harvest and native permanent forest is created through reforestation of marginal lands for ecosystem services including carbon sequestration. Predator Eradication Rats, brushtail possums and mustelids are heavily suppressed or functionally eliminated nationwide as a result of a largely successful Predator Free 2050 programme, with some increase in control of other invasive mammals. Increasing Extreme Events Climate change results in increasing frequency, scale and intensity of extreme events, including fires, storms and flooding, with significant impacts on infrastructure, funding policies and persistence of native biodiversity. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361.t001 PLOS ONE Conservation futures 2050 PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 5 / 16