Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity

elsewhere [26]. For example, AoNZ has developed world-leading expertise in predator control and has some of the strictest biosecurity regulations in the world, producing a model that has been considered globally [28]. Natural disasters and weather extremes have already prompted forced relocations of residents in badly affected areas, with government buy-outs of unliveable homes and limits on rebuilding following natural disasters. This trend mirrors conversations underway in many other countries [19]. Indigenous Māori groups have campaigned for decades for better recognition of their rights and redress of historical harms (e.g. illegal land seizure) under AoNZ’s founding treaty, the Treaty of Waitangi–Te Tiriti o Waitangi, resulting in increasing formal recognition of Māori language and culture and the return of land to a form of indigenous governance or co-governance [29–32]. Similar underlying issues exist globally, including in Canada, the United States, India and Brazil, although the extent to which they have been or are being addressed varies widely [33–35]. We have therefore developed a set of possible future scenarios that span a range of drivers that reflect trends operative globally and explored their implications for AoNZ. However, these scenarios can aid managers or those conducting similar exercises across a range of set- tings. Here we describe our approach to developing the scenarios, highlight the strengths and limitations of this approach, and describe ways in which these scenarios can be used to stimu-

late conservation thinking and planning over a longer time horizon than is usually considered [8]. Materials and methods The goal of this exercise was to develop scenarios that drew on and extended current trends and ideas to imagine a suite of non-exclusive possible futures for AoNZ in 2050, exploring their potential environmental, policy, economic and social implications [12, 15]. We chose 2050 because we expect a 30-year timeframe to provide time for significant change to begin, it is about one human generation which is a timescale often considered in scenarios, and it is suf- ficiently proximate that current decisions or management activities can influence the outcome in traceable ways. A 30-year timeframe is also at the far end of most research and management planning horizons but is still within the timeframes considered for some very long-term plan- ning, such as the Predator Free 2050 programme, which aims to eradicate three groups of non-native mammalian predators from AoNZ by 2050 [36]. We developed scenarios that confronted current research and management paradigms with significant change but were plausible and could prompt proactive research and policy in the near-term. Unlike many scenario exercises, which focus on a single core issue and construct scenarios that represent a range of potential responses [17], we chose to address a non-exclu- sive range of potential issues. We wanted to generate scenarios that drew from the trends, pri- orities and concerns considered by different disciplines and spanned multiple long-term

drivers of environmental change. This approach also reflects conservation and research plan- ning needs that are developed in the context of multiple non-exclusive potential threats, issues and opportunities [2]. We therefore used a modified scenario-building structure, which selected several core developments and briefly explored the pathways, opportunities and risks within each one, allowing us to cover more developments with the time available. How a sce- nario is achieved is often just as important as the scenario itself, so we highlighted the key uncertainties and contingencies that can shape outcomes, including research agendas, man- agement priorities and policy (detailed below). We solicited scenario ideas from 15 participants with expertise spanning conservation and biosecurity management and policy, invasive predator control, climate change, economics, social science, forestry, indigenous rights and environmental monitoring (Fig 1). Participants PLOS ONE Conservation futures 2050 PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 3 / 16