Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity

Introduction In the face of the growing number, complexity and uncertainty of environmental challenges, long-term planning is essential for successful conservation programmes ranging from native species recovery to management of non-native invasive species [1–3]. Effectively linking research, management and policy planning using long-term strategic approaches is required to meet the challenges of uncertain future dynamics in potentially non-analogue future cli- mates and ecosystems [4–7]. However attempts are often limited by relatively short-term fund- ing and decision-making cycles coupled with known lags between science and policy development [8–11]. Exploring potential futures can direct research programmes towards new areas of need and can help practitioners prepare for, and respond proactively to, emerging challenges and make decisions robust to existing uncertainties [12–14]. Strategic foresight, therefore, has been advocated as a powerful tool for future-focused decision-making in the face of uncertainties in conservation, but is yet to be widely applied [12]. Scenario development is a form of strategic foresight that considers possible futures from multiple angles. Scenarios can explore a broad range of potential implications of an event or trend within a given timeframe, including indirect and complex effects [15–17]. This provides an approach for evaluating what futures we choose to work towards and revealing potential challenges and opportunities that could emerge based on current trends [17]. Scenario-build-

ing is also a mechanism for integrating different expertise and knowledge across disciplines and stakeholders, thus generating trends and perspectives that are more broadly informed and less constrained by individual lines of investigation or practice [15]. Scenarios therefore are powerful as a means of stimulating long-term thinking and planning beyond normal planning horizons in conservation research and practice [12, 15]. Planning for non-analogue futures, for example through future scenarios, is urgently required given current impacts and rapid changes in multiple drivers of global change [18, 19]. For example, the costs and damage from non-native invasive species are already a major global issue that could be exacerbated by cli- mate change or increased weather extremes [20]. Aotearoa New Zealand (AoNZ) is an excellent study system for exploring these environ- mental and conservation issues, as island nations are often on the forefront by necessity because of their unique biota (i.e., high rates of endemicity), smaller geographic extent for range adjustment of species and relatively high rates of invasion by non-native species [21, 22]. Conservation in AoNZ is characterized by an emphasis on protecting rare and endangered species, particularly birds, and managing large tracts of remote, uninhabited native forest [2]. The lack of any native terrestrial mammals, except for native bats, has made the flora and fauna highly vulnerable to non-native mammalian predators and herbivores, some of which

also have agricultural impacts. Much of the conservation work is focused on controlling these species [23], as well as high-impact invasive plants such as conifers [24] and an increasing number of emerging species [25]. Primary production is also vulnerable to non-native species and environmental changes [26] and provides key exports from AoNZ, including dairy, sheep and beef, forestry using non-native tree species, and fruit products (e.g. kiwifruit, apples, wine) [27]. Tourism is also a major component of the economy, long marketed under a “clean, green New Zealand” campaign. Given the wide-ranging potential impacts of these drivers of envi- ronmental change, there is interest in long-term, coordinated and transdisciplinary approaches to research, management and planning, but the scope of the challenges means many responses are still reactionary, isolated and occur within narrow boundaries. As a result of this biogeographical and socio-economic context, AoNZ has begun address- ing environmental issues including climate change and invasive species, and related social issues including land rights and conflicting land uses, which have often been neglected PLOS ONE Conservation futures 2050 PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 2 / 16 collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.