Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity

Scenarios could be a promising approach to promote future-focused planning for practi- tioners, policymakers and researchers. For example, the scenarios we developed indicate a need for change in current approaches to resource management decisions to support ecosys- tem resilience and cultural practices of environmental stewardship. These scenarios could inform critical reviews and reform of relevant policies and legislation, such as the Resource Management Act 1991 and Conservation Act 1987. The involvement of policymakers in our workshop, as well as presentations of the scenarios to policymakers directly, can facilitate translation into policy work, and these scenarios could be included in submissions to local and national governing bodies as they consider new legislation or develop conservation priorities. The scenarios approach explicitly considers the broader socio-economic context in which con- servation activities and outcomes occur and the wide range of subjects covered within each scenario benefits practitioners and planners working on environmental and conservation issues from a variety of angles. Scenarios can highlight key decisions or processes that can maximize the opportunities and minimize the risks of expected future trends and reveal uncer- tainties that would benefit from new knowledge or research. We encourage a long-term out- look that considers decisions and their implications by explicitly considering multi-decadal trends and developments, and that could facilitate more proactive approaches to major emerg- ing issues. Acknowledgments

We thank Aisling Rayne, Judy van Rossem, Michael Berardozzi, Moana Tuwhare, Spencer Clubb and Suzie Greenhalgh, who participated in our scenario development workshop in addition to the authors. We thank Kevin Collins for facilitating the workshop. We appreci- ate those who provided feedback on the scenarios, including Jean Morton and Dean Ander- son. Sandra Lavorel provided valuable early feedback as we developed our methods. We also extend our thanks to the staff at Manaaki Whenua–Landcare Research who supported the workshop logistics, particularly Helen Ah Kuoi and Robyn Cameron. This project was supported by New Zealand’s Biological Heritage National Science Challenge, Ngā Koiora Tuku Iho. A-GA is a principal scientist at the Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand. The opinions expressed in this article do not represent the view or position of the respective employers. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Jennifer L. Bufford, Angela J. Brandt, Duane A. Peltzer. Funding acquisition: Angela J. Brandt, Duane A. Peltzer. Investigation: Jennifer L. Bufford, Angela J. Brandt, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, Amanda Black, Bradley S. Case, Adam Sean Forbes, Catherine Kirby, Rowan Sprague, Anita Wreford, Duane A. Peltzer. Methodology: Jennifer L. Bufford, Angela J. Brandt, Duane A. Peltzer. Project administration: Angela J. Brandt. Writing – original draft: Jennifer L. Bufford. Writing – review & editing: Jennifer L. Bufford, Angela J. Brandt, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, Amanda Black, Bradley S. Case, Adam Sean Forbes, Catherine Kirby, Rowan Sprague, Anita Wreford, Duane A. Peltzer.

PLOS ONE Conservation futures 2050 PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 11 / 16