Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity

RESEARCH ARTICLE Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity Jennifer L. BuffordID1*, Angela J. BrandtID2, Anne-Gaelle AusseilID3, Amanda Black4, Bradley S. Case5, Adam Sean Forbes6, Catherine Kirby7, Rowan Sprague1, Anita Wreford8, Duane A. Peltzer1 1 Manaaki Whenua–Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand, 2 Manaaki Whenua–Landcare Research, Dunedin, New Zealand, 3 Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand, 4 Bioprotection Aotearoa, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand, 5 School of Science, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand, 6 Forbes Ecology Limited, Hastings, New Zealand, 7 Entelea Scicom, Hamilton, New Zealand, 8 Faculty of Environment, Society and Design, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand * buffordj@landcareresearch.co.nz Abstract Large scale changes in biodiversity and conservation management require long-term goals and planning across multiple sectors in the face of increasing global change. Major trends in land use and management interventions, species additions or losses, and climate are well rec- ognized, but responses are still often short-term and fragmented across agencies and sectors. Scenario-building can be a powerful tool to imagine possible futures, integrating across sectors and disciplines and promoting long-term thinking and planning. As an interdisciplinary team of experts, we developed potential scenarios for a range of future environmental conditions. The

scenarios explored: increasing land ownership and stewardship of land by indigenous peoples (Māori); widespread afforestation using native tree species; national-scale eradication of inva- sive mammalian predators; and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. We explored the implications of these globally-relevant trends at a national scale using Aotearoa New Zea- land as our study system. Detailed descriptions of these scenarios were developed by experts using environmental, economic, social science and policy lenses. Across scenarios several common themes were consistently highlighted, including the importance of land use in driving other conservation outcomes. How the value of ecosystem services is recognized and priori- tized was also important to a wide range of outcomes. Furthermore, each scenario presented both opportunities and risks to equality, indigenous empowerment and human capital, empha- sizing the importance of good policy responses to maximize benefits and minimize unintended harm. These scenarios will be used to stimulate new questions and ideas for biodiversity con- servation and management, such as considering the implications of different potential futures for the management of biological invasions. This approach is explicitly designed to be generali- sable across different sites or regions and provides a method for considering the implications of potential future changes for a broad range of disciplines or needs. PLOS ONE PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0311361 December 12, 2024 1 / 16 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111

a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Bufford JL, Brandt AJ, Ausseil A-G, Black A, Case BS, Forbes AS, et al. (2024) Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity. PLoS ONE 19(12): e0311361. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0311361 Editor: Andre´s Viña, Michigan State University, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Received: April 26, 2024 Accepted: August 28, 2024 Published: December 12, 2024 Copyright: © 2024 Bufford et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: Full descriptions of the four scenarios as well as the broader list of 10 scenarios originally considered and the prompts used to develop the four target scenarios are available at the Biological Heritage National Science Challenge datastore: https://doi.org/10.34721/ wnwf-5g91. Funding: New Zealand’s Biological Heritage National Science Challenge, Ngā Koiora Tuku Iho. the funders had no role in study design, data