Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change

We also calculated the proportion of grid cells predicted to be breeding area in the current actual breeding range of the red-crowned crane. The results show that the predicted grid cells suitable for breeding area in current actual breeding range from our model decrease very quickly in the near future under all climate change scenarios (Fig 5). Under the high emission scenario—RCP8.5 and the intermediate emission scenario—RCP6.0, the red-crowned crane would lose almost all of its actual breeding range at the end of this century. The situation is bet- ter under the low emission scenario—RCP2.6 and the intermediate emission scenario— RCP4.5. The continental population of the red-crowned crane would still have approximately 15% of its current actual breeding range at 2080s. At the center of this century, our model pre- dicts the lowest area of suitable breeding area in current actual breeding range under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. Under the intermediate emission scenario—RCP6.0, the red-crowned crane will Fig 4. Proportion of breeding area in China, Russia and Mongolia. a. low emission scenario–RCP2.6, b. intermediate scenario– RCP4.5, c. intermediate scenario–RCP6.0, d. high emission scenario–RCP8.5. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229984.g004 PLOS ONE Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229984 March 12, 2020 9 / 16