Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change

RCP8.5, the average of human influence index in the predicted breeding area maintains the similar pattern of change, decreasing quickly and then increasing slightly at the end of this cen- tury (Fig 7). The average human influence index under those three emission scenarios ranges from 7 to 9 at 2080s, much lower than the value in current actual breeding area. However, the average human influence index in breeding area under the intermediate emission scenario— RCP6.0 decreases continuously, and has the lowest value of 6 at the end of this century. This is because our model predicts that the breeding area will shift farther northward, and the main breeding area distributes around 54 arc-degree, where there is less human activity. Discussion Our results demonstrated that bioclimatic niche modeling can predict the current breeding range of the continental population of the red-crowned crane very well. The excellent perfor- mance of the bioclimatic niche model makes us confident on the reliability of the prediction of future potential breeding range of red-crowned crane under changing climate. However, there are many other environmental factors such as food resource, nesting preference, land use, and Fig 7. Average human influence index in actual breeding area and predicted breeding area under climate change. (Error bars show 95% confidence interval of average human influence index). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229984.g007 PLOS ONE Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change

PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229984 March 12, 2020 12 / 16