Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change

The mean value of human influence index in current actual breeding range of the continen- tal population of the red-crowned crane is 14.4 (Fig 7). The average human influence index in predicted breeding area from our model is slightly higher than that of actual breeding range, which is 14.7. Our bioclimatic niche model predicts a much larger potential breeding area around the current actual breeding range. Because the Northeast China is one of the main grain production regions, and populated 0.107 billion people, the broader climatic-suitable breeding area predicted from our model may suffer from human activities such as urbaniza- tion, agriculture production, and habitat degradation. The center part of the Northeast China has many big cities and high population density. These factors restrict the red-crowned crane from inhabiting in all suitable breeding range under current climate condition. As a result of climate change, the breeding area of the red-crowned crane will shift north- ward from current actual breeding range, where the population density is lower than that of current breeding area, and has less agricultural lands. Under the low emission scenario— RCP2.6, the intermediate emission scenario—RCP4.5, and the high emission scenario— Fig 6. Relative importance of variables in bioclimatic niche model. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229984.g006 PLOS ONE Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229984 March 12, 2020 11 / 16