Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change

still have approximately 30% of its actual breeding range at the center of this century, which suggests that this emission scenario has less adverse effects on this species. The average of relative importance of variable from our 10 cross-validation bioclimatic niche models shows that the most important variable is bio_15 (precipitation seasonality) (Fig 6). The AUC value decreases by approximately 30% after removing the effects of this variable in the models. The possible explanation of the highest importance of precipitation seasonality could be that this variable determines the vegetation cover patterns and food resources in this area. The second most important variable is Bio_4—temperature seasonality. The third most important variable contributing to bioclimatic niche models is Bio_13—precipitation of wet- test month. The wettest month is the growing season for plant in the breeding range. It is also the breeding period for the red-crowned crane. Therefore the change of precipitation patterns and increasing temperature along with climate change would cause the shift of breeding range of this species. Fig 5. Proportion of grid cells predicted to be breeding area in the actual breeding range. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229984.g005 PLOS ONE Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229984 March 12, 2020 10 / 16