Brazil nut journey under future climate change in Amazon

increases in the relative abundance of the dry-affiliated genera Bertholletia. One of the aggravating factors also for the effective success of the chestnut tree is its reproduction dependent on bee- mediated fertilization and the loss of these pollinators affects the long-term viability of chestnut populations [20]. In addition, Brazil nuts are also dependent on agouti for seed dispersal [51]. Inasmuch, climate change alters the geographic distribution of species and the response of each species depends on its individual intrinsic tolerance [52]. This displacement may lead to the loss of key relationships between species, contributing to the extinction of these biotic interactions [53]. Seed dispersal and pollination are closely dependent on animal-plant inter- actions for reproduction [53]. According to Sales et al. [54] found that the resilience of the biotic interactions between the Brazil nut tree and its community of dispersers may suffer a decoupling due to the niche mismatch for the year 2090. This mismatch was more frequent in the scenario more realistic scenario of climate change (SSP3-7.0). In our results, we verified that the colonization regions are concentrated in areas of higher altitudes. These results are comparable with other works. For example, [55] found that 20% of the epiphyte species found in the Atlantic Forest will have their climatic niche shifted to higher altitudes. The same was observed by [56], who, working with ferns and lycophytes in Hondu- ras, found that 28–53% of these will have altitudinal displacement by the year 2100 for both

RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. [57] found that 47% of the fern and lycophyte species found along the mountain of the Celaque National Park, the highest in Honduras, will have to Fig 3. Spatial dynamics, considering extinction, colonization, and persistence, for Bertholletia excelsa in the different future climate scenarios evaluated in the study. Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @naturalearthdata.com. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312308.g003 PLOS ONE Effects of climate change on Brazil nut PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312308 November 13, 2024 8 / 13