Brazil nut journey under future climate change in Amazon

correlation between the tendency to increase suitability associated with the increase in altitude. It is also possible to observe that there are differences between the different climate scenarios. Apparently, the more severe the scenario (e.g., SSP5-8.5), the greater the effect of colonization to new areas of high elevation. The maps in Fig 3 evaluate the spatial dynamics of the species in the different climatic sce- narios. In the most optimistic scenario (Fig 3A), the local extinction of the species would occur in a large area in the first 20 years, being more severe than the scenario in Fig 3B (SSP2-4.5) B. The most dramatic situation would be in the SSP3-7.0 scenario (Fig 3C), in which the area where the species could persist is restricted to a narrow strip in the central Amazon towards the southwestern Amazon. In the most pessimistic scenario (Fig 3D), there would be a signifi- cant loss of habitat with virtual local extinction, mainly in the last period evaluated (areas in red). Fig 1. Gain or loss of climatic suitability for Bertholletia excelsa by the end of the century in the different climate scenarios evaluated. (A) SSP1-2.6; (B) SSP2-4.5; (C) SSP3-7.0; (D) SSP5-8.5. Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @naturalearthdata.com. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312308.g001 Table 1. Percentual of the potential distribution lost cumulatively via predicted extinction for each period (col- umns) and climate scenario (rows) analyzed in relation to the current distribution. Period/Scenario 2021–2040 2041–2060 2061–2080 2081–2100

SSP1-2.6 41.11 55.68 59.92 62.29 SSP2-4.5 33.62 43.74 49.23 53.53 SSP3-7.0 44.51 73.27 88.39 94.37 SSP5-8.5 36.74 47.33 60.15 71.60 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312308.t001 PLOS ONE Effects of climate change on Brazil nut PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312308 November 13, 2024 6 / 13