Influence of climate and heatwaves on dengue transmission in Sao Paulo and Natal, Brazil

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0334838 October 24, 2025 11 / 13 Project administration: Thiago Nogueira. Software: Camila Lorenz. Supervision: Rita Yuri Ynoue, Adriana Gioda, Thiago Nogueira. Visualization: Camila Lorenz, Rita Yuri Ynoue, Adriana Gioda, Thiago Nogueira. Writing – original draft: Camila Lorenz. Writing – review & editing: Rita Yuri Ynoue, Adriana Gioda, Thiago Nogueira. References 1. Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Farlow AW, Moyes CL, et al. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature. 2013;496(7446):504–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12060 PMID: 23563266 2. Shepard DS, Undurraga EA, Halasa YA, Stanaway JD. The global economic burden of dengue: a systematic analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2016;16(8):935–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00146-8 PMID: 27091092 3. Cheng J, Bambrick H, Yakob L, Devine G, Frentiu FD, Toan DTT, et al. Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020;14(1):e0007997. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997 PMID: 31961869 4. Simmons CP, Farrar JJ, Vinh Chau N, Wills B. Dengue. New England Journal of Medicine. 2012; 366(15): 1423–32. 5. Fang L-Q, Sun Y, Zhao G-P, Liu L-J, Jiang Z-J, Fan Z-W, et al. Travel-related infections in mainland China, 2014-16: an active surveillance study. Lancet Public Health. 2018;3(8):e385–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30127-0 PMID: 30033200 6. Sajib AH, Akter S, Saha G, Hossain Z. Demographic-environmental effect on dengue outbreaks in 11 countries. PLoS One. 2024;19(9):e0305854.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0305854 PMID: 39259718 7. Islam MS, Shahrear P, Saha G, Ataullha M, Rahman MS. Mathematical analysis and prediction of future outbreak of dengue on time-varying contact rate using machine learning approach. Comput Biol Med. 2024;178:108707. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compbiomed.2024.108707 PMID: 38870726 8. Damtew YT, Tong M, Varghese BM, Anikeeva O, Hansen A, Dear K, et al. Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a system- atic review and meta-analysis. EBioMedicine. 2023;91:104582. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104582 PMID: 37088034 9. Fan J, Wei W, Bai Z, Fan C, Li S, Liu Q, et al. A systematic review and meta-analysis of dengue risk with temperature change. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014;12(1):1–15. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100001 PMID: 25546270 10. Wu X, Lang L, Ma W, Song T, Kang M, He J, et al. Non-linear effects of mean temperature and relative humidity on dengue incidence in Guang- zhou, China. Sci Total Environ. 2018;628–629:766–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.136 PMID: 29454216 11. Chen S-C, Liao C-M, Chio C-P, Chou H-H, You S-H, Cheng Y-H. Lagged temperature effect with mosquito transmission potential explains den- gue variability in southern Taiwan: insights from a statistical analysis. Sci Total Environ. 2010;408(19):4069–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scito- tenv.2010.05.021 PMID: 20542536 12. Iguchi JA, Seposo XT, Honda Y. Meteorological factors affecting dengue incidence in Davao, Philippines. BMC Public Health. 2018;18:1–10.

13. Vu HH, Okumura J, Hashizume M, Tran DN, Yamamoto T. Regional differences in the growing incidence of dengue Fever in Vietnam explained by weather variability. Trop Med Health. 2014;42(1):25–33. https://doi.org/10.2149/tmh.2013-24 PMID: 24808744 14. Xiang J, Hansen A, Liu Q, Liu X, Tong MX, Sun Y, et al. Association between dengue fever incidence and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2005–2014. Environmental Research. 2017;153:17–26. 15. Jia P, Liang L, Tan X, Chen J, Chen X. Potential effects of heat waves on the population dynamics of the dengue mosquito Aedes albopictus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2019;13(7):e0007528. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007528 PMID: 31276467 16. Meehl GA, Tebaldi C. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science. 2004;305(5686):994–7. https://doi. org/10.1126/science.1098704 PMID: 15310900 17. Du M, Jing W, Liu M, Liu J. The Global Trends and Regional Differences in Incidence of Dengue Infection from 1990 to 2019: An Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Infect Dis Ther. 2021;10(3):1625–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40121-021-00470-2 PMID: 34173959 18. World Health Organization. Dengue and severe dengue. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dengue-and-severe-dengue. 2024. Accessed 2025 January. 19. Nunes PCG, Daumas RP, Sánchez-Arcila JC, Nogueira RMR, Horta MAP, Dos Santos FB. 30 years of fatal dengue cases in Brazil: a review. BMC Public Health. 2019;19(1):329. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-6641-4 PMID: 30898104

20. Salles TS, da Encarnação Sá-Guimarães T, de Alvarenga ESL, Guimarães-Ribeiro V, de Meneses MDF, de Castro-Salles PF, et al. History, epidemiology and diagnostics of dengue in the American and Brazilian contexts: a review. Parasit Vectors. 2018;11(1):264. https://doi.org/10.1186/ s13071-018-2830-8 PMID: 29690895