Influence of climate and heatwaves on dengue transmission in Sao Paulo and Natal, Brazil

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0334838 October 24, 2025 1 / 13 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Lorenz C, Ynoue RY, Gioda A, Nogueira T (2025) Influence of climate and heatwaves on dengue transmission in Sao Paulo and Natal, Brazil. PLoS One 20(10): e0334838. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0334838 Editor: Julian Ruiz-Saenz, Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, COLOMBIA Received: March 24, 2025 Accepted: October 2, 2025 Published: October 24, 2025 Copyright: © 2025 Lorenz et al . This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data availability statement: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files. Funding: This study was financed in part by the Coordenaçã o de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) - Brazil (finance code 001). This work is a direct RESEARCH ARTICLE Influence of climate and heatwaves on dengue transmission in Sao Paulo and Natal, Brazil Camila Lorenz 1,2*, Rita Yuri Ynoue3, Adriana Gioda4, Thiago Nogueira1 1 Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo/SP, Brasil, 2 Instituto Butantan, São Paulo/SP, Brasil, 3 Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo/SP, Brasil, 4 Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro/RJ, Brasil * camila.lorenz@butantan.gov.br Abstract

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge whose transmission dynamics are highly sensitive to climatic conditions. However, the effects of extreme weather events like heatwaves remain poorly under- stood. This study investigated the influence of climatic factors and heatwaves on den- gue incidence in two key Brazilian hotspots: the subtropical megacity of São Paulo (Sao Paulo State) and the tropical coastal city of Natal (Rio Grande do Norte State). We analyzed weekly confirmed dengue cases and meteorological data (temperature, precipitation, heatwaves) from 2014 to 2023. Distributed lag non-linear models and negative binomial regression were used to assess the complex, delayed associations between meteorological variables and dengue infections. Over the study period, 149,468 dengue cases were reported in São Paulo and 80,999 in Natal. Trans- mission patterns differed significantly, with Natal exhibiting more regular epidemic cycles. Our models revealed that higher minimum temperatures were associated with increased dengue risk in both cities. Conversely, and perhaps counter-intuitively, higher maximum temperatures and total precipitation showed negative associations with dengue cases. The impact of heatwaves was strikingly different between the locations. In São Paulo, the occurrence of a heatwave was associated with a 70% reduction in dengue risk in subsequent weeks (Relative Risk [RR]: 0.30, 95% Con- fidence Interval [CI]: 0.18–0.49). In contrast, no statistically significant association

between heatwaves and dengue was observed in Natal. Our findings demonstrate that the relationship between extreme heat and dengue transmission is not uniform and can be inhibitory, challenging the assumption that warming consistently favors vector proliferation. These location-specific insights are critical for developing more accurate, tailored public health early-warning systems and caution against one-size- fits-all climate adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases.