Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model

For Cx. pipiens, the relationship between yearly frequency of WNV detection in mosquitoes, air temperature, and relative humidity (derived from the climate model) was estimated using Spearman’s Rank-Order Correlation and a Poisson regression model (Statistica 13 [40]). For melanoma, the linear regression model was used for modelling the cumulative incidence of melanoma versus the difference of the cumulative UVR doses for hot and warm days (Fig 4D). Analysis of residual distribution was done by Shapiro-Wilk test (Statistica 13 [40]) Results Mosquito vectors Fig 2A shows an evident linear trend of the mean annual temperature Ta for the period 1985– 2030 (r = 0.467; p = 0.001; τ = 0.328) calculated from the EBU-POM regional model outputs for 29 representative sites in the VPS. All parameters that were chosen for the evaluation of the spread and population increase of An. hyrcanus were positively, but to a different extent, corre- lated to the time argument (periods in which sampling was performed since the beginning of monitoring in 1985) indicating a monotonic trend. The increase of parameters follows the trend of Ta (Fig 2A). The strongest correlation was found for the increase in the ratio of posi- tive samplings (r = 0.986; p = 0.000307; τ = 0.828), followed by the number of mosquitoes per trap night (r = 0.919; p = 0.009639;τ = 0.733), and the number of sites invaded (r = 0.889; Fig 4. (a) Relative change of hot days (HD) and (b) UVR radiation doses [R (UVRD)] for the period 2001–2030 compared to the period 1961–1990; (c)

cumulative values of mean UVR doses for the period 1985–2030 (averaged for nine sites: PA, SO, KI, NS, BC, ZR, SM, BK, and BG) under the SRES-A1B scenario (for WD and HD days); and (d) cumulative incidence of melanoma for the period 1995–2004 in the Vojvodina Province, Serbia. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227679.g004 Impact of climate change on malaria vector, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227679 January 15, 2020 8 / 17