Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model

using the commercial kit RNA UltraSense™ One-Step qRT-PCR System (Life Technologies Cor- poration) with the primers and probe that targeted the nucleocapsid protein C gene regions of WNV, as described by Petrović et al. [8]. We analysed the yearly occurrence of the WNV posi- tive Cx. pipiens mosquitoes sampled by dry ice-baited traps in the years 2010–2015 across 66 unique location-year combinations (S3 Table). Only traps positioned precisely at the same spot over the entire six-year period are considered for analysis. Numbers allocated to different places (Fig 3) indicate the number of years in the period 2010–2015 in which WNV was detected in sampled Cx. pipiens mosquitoes; e.g. 5 indicates that WNV positive Cx. pipiens were detected in five out of the six years in the samples collected from the same spot. Melanoma incidence. In the analysis we have used two indicators: (i) melanoma inci- dence rate that is a measure of the number of new cases ("incidence") per unit of time ("rate") and (ii) cumulative incidence (“incidence proportion” that measures the number of new cases per person in the population over a defined period of time–often called risk or proportion). Melanoma incidence rate (per 100,000 people) for ten years 1995–2004 was based on the data obtained from the paper by Jovanović et al. [7]. From these data, we calculated the cumulative incidence [28]. We have used the model simulation to study the expected impact of climate change on UVR exposure of human skin for nine sites in VPS [PA (Palić), SO (Sombor), KI

(Kikinda), NS (Novi Sad), BC (Bečej), ZR (Zrenjanin), SM (Sremska Mitrovica), BK (Bantaski Karlovac), and BG (Beograd)]. For calculating the daily doses of UVR (UVRD) in the study area sites, we have used the following empirical formula UVRD = 0.002507×Gd−5.985 (kJ/ m2) derived by Malinović-Milićević et al. [29], where Gd is the daily sum of global solar radia- tion. First, we calculated UVRD from global radiation model outputs using the empirical for- mula for the nine sites for the period April–September, and then we found the relative change R(UVRD) of those doses as R(UVRD) = (UVRD-UVRDk)/ UVRDk where UVRDk is the dose for 1961–1990 reference period, while the UVRD is calculated for the period 2001–2030. Statistics We considered the papers by Mihailović et al. [2,30] in which Kolmogorov complexity mea- sures [Kolmogorov complexity (KC), Kolmogorov complexity spectrum (KC spectrum), and Fig 3. (a) Dependence of frequencies (λ) of WNV positive Culex pipiens detections at the same site on overwintering temperatures (TOA); (b) Frequency of sampling of WNV infected mosquitoes (1–5 times) during six years (bars and numbers) in NUTS3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) units of the Vojvodina Province, Serbia. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227679.g003 Impact of climate change on malaria vector, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227679 January 15, 2020 6 / 17