Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model

2000, using European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR) data. This list shows that the VPS is among the top eleven states (six of them have parts in the Pannonian Plane) listed as the most endangered. In this study, devoted to revealing the potential impact of climate change on animal and human health, we compared a considerable amount of previously unpublished ecological data obtained from the field and clinical surveys with climate change projections for the VPS, which is representative of the Central European low-altitude areas with a human-dominated landscape (Fig 1). We examined the effects of temperature on the spread and relative abun- dance of the malaria vector An. hyrcanus and the “microclimate” differentiation between sites with a specific frequency of WNV occurrence in Cx. pipiens. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on melanoma incidence as a synergy of changes in UVR doses and the long- term increase in the number of hot days (HD), with daily maximum temperature � 30˚C using the Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) regional model data. Materials and methods For the assessment of the climate change and the impact of UVR doses, we used the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional EBU-POM model for the historical period 1961– 2000 and the period 2001–2030 according to the A1B scenario defined in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) [18], from now on SRES-A1B. SRES scenarios, which defined future global greenhouse gases emissions, were extensively used in the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third, and Fourth Assessment Reports. The main storyline behind the A1B scenario is rapid economic growth, followed by a significant increase in greenhouse gases concentrations in the future. In the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are introduced, which are possible future Fig 1. (a) Location of the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) in Europe and (b) altitude map. (Made with Natural Earth—naturalearthdata.com). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227679.g001 Impact of climate change on malaria vector, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227679 January 15, 2020 3 / 17