Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model

meteorologists and medical entomologists. With the idea to better draw upon the resources and insights of the various sectors we designed and implemented research and programmes to achieve better outcomes in the control of zoonoses (diseases that can spread between animals and humans, e.g., WNV disease). This led us to the following achievements: (i) the first detec- tion of WNV in horses in Serbia in 2009 [44]; (ii) the first detection of WNV in mosquitoes in Serbia in 2010 [26]; (iii) the first detection of WNV in wild birds in Serbia in 2012 [45]; (iv) development and implementation of the national programme of WNV surveillance in mos- quito, bird and horse population [8], combined with human surveillance in VPS from 2014; (v) increased visibility to ECDC, EFSA and WHO; (vi) the first detection of imported dengue human case in Serbia in 2016 [46]; and (vii) development and implementation of “One Health” programme in VPS from 2018. We are quite sure that much less would have been achieved without multidisciplinary communication and collaboration initiated in 2003, and this paper would not have been compiled. The temperature trend over the period of observations used in this study and for the future time horizon following A1B scenario obtained with the EBU-POM regional climate model is within the multi-model ensemble (MME) spread of regional climate models with the similar configuration used in the ENSEMBLES project [47]. For the region of interest, temperature change for the period 2001–2030 with respect to the period 1961–1990, in the EBU-POM inte-

gration is 0.75˚C and in the case of ENSEMBLES MME spread range is 0.5–1.5˚C [48]. Fur- thermore, over period 2001–2030, uncertainty in temperature projections, related to the scenarios is just small fraction of total uncertainty [49], due to the fact that there is no signifi- cant difference in greenhouse gases concentrations for different SRES scenarios. Consequently, it can be considered that for the period 2001–2030, in case of other scenarios, the estimated range will be similar. Following this findings, even that selection of single model and single scenario does not allow estimate of the full uncertainty in the future, presented results that relay on temperature change, can be seen as plausible future realisation within total uncer- tainty range, and realistic response of the complex system for further increase in temperature as a forcing driver. In future studies, it will be beneficial to introduce results of other regional climate models, such as multi-model ensemble from the CORDEX framework, as a need for better understanding of different uncertainties in the results. Mosquito vectors Until the end of the 20th century, northern Serbia was considered the northern limit for the distribution of An. hyrcanus in Europe. The first detection in Serbia dates from 1979 [50] from the north part of VPS. We found it in the central part of the Province in 1985 [25] and since then have been noticing its continued spread. Several records north from Vojvodina, in Slova- kia in 2004 [51], the Czech Republic in 2005 [52], and Austria in 2012 [53] confirm our obser-

vation. Due to its exophilic and exophagic behaviour, An. hyrcanus has never been considered as the primary vector of malaria in Europe. Its spread to higher latitudes, combined with the changes in human behaviour (increased outdoor leisure activities, the mobility of humans, number of seasonal workers in the field, number of migrants in Europe), might increase its vector capacity. The similar northern spread of population distribution range that was regis- tered for An. maculipennis s.s. in Russia [54], and Culiseta longiareolata in southern (in 2012 [55]) and northern (in 2013 [56]) Austria might well represent the tendency described with our model. The latest illustration of similar changes is the finding of Uranotaenia unguiculata, a ther- mophilic mosquito species frequently occurring in the Mediterranean basin, in northern Ger- many, some 300km north of the previous northern limit [57]. Impact of climate change on malaria vector, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227679 January 15, 2020 10 / 17