Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model

RESEARCH ARTICLE Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model Dragutin T. MihailovićID1, Dusˇ an Petrić2*, Tamasˇ PetrovićID3, Ivana Hrnjaković- Cvjetković4,5, Vladimir Djurdjevic6, Emilija Nikolić-Đorić7, Ilija Arsenić1, Mina PetrićID8,9,10*, Gordan Mimić11, Aleksandra Ignjatović-C´ upina2 1 Department of Field and Vegetable Crops, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia, 2 Department of Plant and Environment Protection, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia, 3 Department for virology, Scientific Veterinary Institute “Novi Sad”, Novi Sad, Serbia, 4 Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia, 5 Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia, 6 Institute of Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia, 7 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia, 8 Avia-GIS NV, Zoersel, Belgium, 9 Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia, 10 Department of Physics and Astronomy, Faculty of Sciences, University of Gent, Gent, Belgium, 11 BioSense Institute, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia * mpetric@avia-gis.com (MP); dusanp@polj.uns.ac.rs (DP) Abstract Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and

UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field col- lections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combina- tions, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Prince- ton Ocean Model for the period 1961–2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyr- canus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We antici- pated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5˚C in overwin- tering TOctober–April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax � 30˚C (Hot Days—HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate

warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227679 January 15, 2020 1 / 17 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Mihailović DT, Petrić D, Petrović T, Hrnjaković-Cvjetković I, Djurdjevic V, Nikolić-Đorić E, et al. (2020) Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model. PLoS ONE 15(1): e0227679. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0227679 Editor: Abdallah M. Samy, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University (ASU), EGYPT Received: June 14, 2019 Accepted: December 25, 2019 Published: January 15, 2020 Peer Review History: PLOS recognizes the benefits of transparency in the peer review process; therefore, we enable the publication of all of the content of peer review and author responses alongside final, published articles. The editorial history of this article is available here: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227679 Copyright: © 2020 Mihailović et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.