Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

8.5). In the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, even marginally suitable (S3) locations will decrease by 5% and 13%, respectively, while areas not suitable for cultivation (N) will increase in all scenarios. Neg- ative changes in suitability will mainly be caused by increasing mean annual temperatures. Most current growing regions (Fig 5) are expected to decrease by at least one suitability class (Central and South America, Central and West Africa, India, Southeast Asia). Only a few regions, especially at the northern and southern borders of the growing areas, are expected to profit from climate change (e.g. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, USA, East Africa, South Africa, China, India, New Zealand) due to increasing minimum temperatures of the coldest month. The main coffee producing countries investigated (Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, Colombia) are all seriously affected by climate change with a strong decline in suitable areas (S1:48–97% reduction; S2:18–51% reduction) and an increase in unsuitable areas by 2050 (Table 3). For example, increasing mean annual temperatures are mainly responsible for negative changes in suitability in Vietnam in all three emission scenarios (Fig 4). Current cashew suitability Globally (Fig 2), the regions manifesting highest levels of current cashew suitability (S1 & S2) are Central (e.g. Mexico) and South America (e.g. Brazil, Venezuela), the Caribbean islands (e.g. Cuba, the Dominican Republic), Central (e.g. the Democratic Republic of the Congo) and West Africa (e.g. Nigeria), Madagascar and South (e.g. Sri Lanka) and Southeast Asia (e.g.

Vietnam, the Philippines). The climate suitability is mainly limited by long dry seasons (e.g. India, northern boundaries in Africa, Brazil, Australia) and low mean annual temperatures (e.g. certain mountainous areas in South America and Southeast Asia). Additionally, the low Fig 2. Overall current suitability for cashew (aggregated climate, land and soil suitability). A Central and South America, B West and Central Africa, C South and Southeast Asia. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976.g002 PLOS ONE Global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976 January 26, 2022 9 / 24