Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

pH limits coffee suitability in South America (Amazon basin), Central Africa (Congo basin) and Southeast Asia (Sumatra, Malaysia, Borneo, New Guinea). In few regions, unsuitable soil texture (e.g. Florida) or steep slopes (e.g. North India) are the limiting factors. The main coffee producing countries investigated (Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, Colombia) have very diverse agroclimatic conditions. Therefore, different climatic requirements (annual temperature, annual precipitation, length of dry season and minimum temperature of coldest month) are important limiting factors determining current coffee suitability (Table 3) depend- ing on the region. For example, in Central and Southern Vietnam (see Fig 4), high annual tem- peratures limit current suitability, while in the South (too high) and in the northern mountains (too low) the limiting factor is the minimum temperatures of the coldest month, and in Central and Northeast Vietnam the high annual precipitation. Future coffee suitability Taking into account climate change scenarios (Table 3 and Fig 5), the suitability of coffee will drastically decrease by 2050. The highest suitability (S1) will decrease by more than 50% in all three RCPs and the moderately suitable (S2) regions decrease by 31% (RCP 2.6) to 41% (RCP Table 3. Suitable coffee growing areas globally and in main producing countries (S1: highly suitable, S2: Moder- ately suitable, S3: Marginally suitable, N: Unsuitable) for current (2000) and future (2050) conditions under three

RCPs: 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (intermediate emissions), 8.5 (high emissions). Expected changes in suitable areas are given as a percentage. RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Suit Class 2000 (km2) 2050 (km2) Δ (%) 2050 (km2) Δ (%) 2050 (km2) Δ (%) World total S1 36,240 16,540 –54.4 16,777 –53.7 14,678 –59.5 S2 5,709,608 3,951,207 –30.8 3,679,863 –35.5 3,369,550 –41.0 S3 14,709,645 15,118,407 2.8 13,995,976 –4.9 12,787,405 –13.1 N 104,044,240 105,413,581 1.3 106,807,118 2.7 108,328,100 4.1 Brazil S1 5,934 1,421 –76.1 1,268 –78.6 161 –97.3 S2 1,822,032 1,311,548 –28.0 1,161,921 –36.2 1,040,958 –42.9 S3 2,430,089 2,536,454 4.4 2,427,693 –0.1 1,939,711 –20.2 N 4,099,828 4,508,459 10.0 4,767,001 16.3 5,377,052 31.2 Vietnam S1 683 358 –47.6 196 –71.3 99 –85.5 S2 141,637 106,814 –24.6 89859 –36.6 75,422 –46.7 S3 108,773 143,838 32.2 146498 34.7 149,801 37.7 N 68,291 68,373 0.1 82829 21.3 94,060 37.7 Indonesia S1 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 S2 42,862 35,247 –17.8 26,828 –37.4 20,914 –51.2 S3 1,391,935 1,191,058 –14.4 922,242 –33.7 698,400 –49.8 N 387,893 596,385 53.7 873,620 125.2 1,103,376 184.5 Colombia S1 332 123 –63.0 108 –67.5 83 –75.0 S2 75,494 55,729 –26.2 50,886 –32.6 47,650 –36.9 S3 574,239 375,858 –34.5 273,066 –52.4 224,152 –61.0 N 473,101 691,455 46.2 799,106 68.9 851,282 79.9 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976.t003 PLOS ONE Global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado

PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976 January 26, 2022 8 / 24