Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

these parameters are identical for all three crops (see Table 1). However, whether these param- eters are limiting factors in the overall suitability still differs between the three crops depending on their other biophysical requirements. The artificial areas that are classified as not suitable (N) are concentrated around the global metropolises and represent only a minor share of the global suitable areas. In contrast, the protected areas, also rated as N, represent a substantial share in all growing regions with a global terrestrial coverage of about 15% [41]. For all three crops, the slope criterion restricts agricultural suitability where it is above 16% (S3) and above 30% (N), both of which obviously represent mountainous and hilly regions such as the Hima- layas or the Andes, but also smaller-scale mountain chains across all growing regions. The coarse fragments of the soil hardly have any effect on crop suitability in any growing region. Additionally, both soil salinity and organic carbon content are not relevant criteria for the suit- ability of coffee, cashew and avocado and will therefore not be described further below. Current coffee suitability Globally, the highest overall current coffee suitability (S1 & S2) is found in Central and South America (esp. Brazil), in Central and West Africa, and in parts of South and Southeast Asia (Fig 1). The northern and southern extents of the global growing regions are restricted by cli- mate factors, mainly by three parameters: long dry seasons (northern and southern boundaries

of the growing regions in Africa, India, Australia, Eastern Brazil), high mean annual tempera- tures (West Africa, certain Southeast Asia regions, Central America) and low mean minimum temperatures of the coldest month (northern and southern boundaries in America, China, cer- tain Southeast Asia regions, some mountainous areas). In some of the climatically suitable regions, the land and soil criteria greatly restrict the suitability of coffee cultivation. Low soil Fig 1. Overall current suitability for coffee (aggregated climate, land and soil suitability). A Central and South America, B West and Central Africa, C South and Southeast Asia. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976.g001 PLOS ONE Global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976 January 26, 2022 7 / 24