Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

by 12% (RCP 2.6) to 20% (RCP 8.5) and S3 areas by 6% (RCP 2.6) to 8% (RCP 8.5), while the global unsuitable areas will slightly decrease. According to the model, in all four main producing countries investigated (Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Indonesia), both positive and negative changes in avocado suitabil- ity due to climate change will occur in different regions by 2050 (Table 5). They can be explained mainly by the expected changes in precipitation patterns (both wetter and drier con- ditions causing positive or negative changes) and to a smaller extent by increasing minimum temperature of the coldest month (positive changes). In Mexico (Fig 9 and Table 5), the posi- tive changes tend to dominate, with increases in S1 (by 87% [RCP 2.6] to 66% [RCP 8.5]) and S2 (by 15% [RCP 2.6] to 21% [RCP 8.5]), and S3 and N areas slightly decreasing. Based on the RCP 4.5 intermediate emissions scenario (Fig 9), future avocado suitability in Mexico is mainly restricted by climate suitability, which is mainly due to the expected mean annual precipitation and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. In the Dominican Republic, the highly suitable (S1) areas will decrease by 59% (RCP 2.6) to 85% (RCP 8.5) and the marginally suit- able (S3) areas by 10% (RCP 2.6) to 16% (RCP 8.5), while the moderately suitable (S2) areas will increase by about 30% in all scenarios. In Indonesia, S1 areas will decrease by 40% (RCP Table 5. Suitable avocado growing areas globally and in main producing countries (S1: Highly suitable, S2: Mod-

erately suitable, S3: Marginally suitable, N: Unsuitable) for current (2000) and future (2050) conditions under three RCPs: 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (intermediate emissions), 8.5 (high emissions). Expected changes in suitable areas are given as a percentage. RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Suit Class 2000 (km2) 2050 (km2) Δ (%) 2050 (km2) Δ (%) 2050 (km2) Δ (%) World total S1 790,882 682,815 –13.7 626,928 –20.7 464,091 –41.3 S2 8,150,219 9,121,096 11.9 9,447,321 15.9 9,763,580 19.8 S3 12,503,581 13,248,676 6.0 13,234,520 5.8 13,497,956 8.0 N 103,062,026 101,454,122 –1.6 101,197,940 –1.8 100,781,081 –2.2 Mexico S1 829 1,548 86.7 1,420 71.3 1,373 65.6 S2 93,712 107,578 14.8 111,375 18.8 112,949 20.5 S3 416,740 411,218 –1.3 405,629 –2.7 406,587 –2.4 N 1,417,134 1,408,071 –0.6 1,409,991 –0.5 1,407,506 –0.7 Dominican Republic S1 3,964 1,632 –58.8 1,194 –69.9 596 -85.0 S2 15,333 19,644 28.1 20,221 31.9 20,275 32.2 S3 15,754 14,111 –10.4 13,314 –15.5 13,320 -15.5 N 11,807 11,470 -2.9 12,128 2.7 12,667 7.3 Peru S1 11,814 5,399 -54.3 4,043 –65.8 2,817 –76.2 S2 92,971 91,394 –1.7 93,042 0.1 95,393 2.6 S3 162,120 164,745 1.6 155,237 –4.2 156,678 –3.4 N 1,005,178 1,010,545 0.5 1,019,761 1.5 1,017,195 1.2 Indonesia S1 8,286 5,002 –39.6 3,607 –56.5 2,874 –65.3 S2 153,705 156,022 1.5 144,982 –5.7 143,972 –6.3 S3 422,596 440,551 4.2 372,775 –11.8 370,961 –12.2 N 1,242,637 1,225,648 –1.4 1,305,859 5.1 1,309,415 5.4

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976.t005 PLOS ONE Global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976 January 26, 2022 15 / 24