Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

only limited regions are affected by soil texture and slope in all four countries and by low soil pH in Peru and Indonesia. Future avocado suitability The climate change scenario models revealed both positive and negative impacts on avocado suitability in different regions by 2050 (Fig 8). Positive changes due to increasing minimum temperatures in the coldest month are mainly identified at the northern and southern bound- aries of the growing regions in America (the USA, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina), Africa (Angola, Zambia), Asia (North India, China) and Australia. In sub-Saharan and East Africa (e.g. Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Chad, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya) and parts of India, positive changes in suitability are caused by increasing precipitation. Regions of mainly negative impacts are due to drier (e.g. Venezuela, Eastern Brazil) or wetter conditions (e.g. Central Africa, Indonesia, the Philippines). Both positive and negative impacts are expected in Central America, West Africa and Southeast Asia (e.g. Vietnam, Myanmar) based on changes in tem- perature or precipitation. On the one hand (Table 5), the highly suitable (S1) areas will decrease globally by 14% (RCP 2.6) to 41% (RCP 8.5). On the other hand, S2 areas will increase Table 4. Suitable cashew growing areas globally and in main producing countries (S1: Highly suitable, S2: Moder- ately suitable, S3: Marginally suitable, N: Unsuitable) for current (2000) and future (2050) conditions under three RCPs: 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (intermediate emissions), 8.5 (high emissions). Expected changes in suitable areas

are given as a percentage. RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Suit Class 2000 (km2) 2050 (km2) Δ (%) 2050 (km2) Δ (%) 2050 (km2) Δ (%) World total S1 1,909,945 2,236,263 17.1 2,271,876 18.9 2,199,364 15.2 S2 9,512,602 9,705,504 2.0 9,817,983 3.2 10,120,530 6.4 S3 8,628,977 9,472,204 9.8 9,570,975 10.9 9,725,958 12.7 N 104,448,211 103,085,763 –1.3 102,838,901 –1.5 102,453,881 –1.9 Vietnam S1 51,682 70,861 37.1 68,820 33.2 68,827 33.2 S2 169,992 154,264 –9.3 157,493 –7.4 158,329 –6.9 S3 44,266 41,088 –7.2 40,028 –9.6 39,299 –11.2 N 53,442 53,170 -0.5 53,042 -0.7 52,928 –1.0 India S1 9,278 7,770 –16.3 6,546 –29.4 5,568 –40.0 S2 157,456 163,086 3.6 164,258 4.3 171,194 8.7 S3 315,272 328,034 4.0 332,251 5.4 331,303 5.1 N 2,566,359 2,549,476 –0.7 2,545,311 –0.8 2,540,302 –1.0 Coˆte d’Ivoire S1 18,165 18,084 –0.4 15,222 –16.2 12,307 –32.2 S2 190,087 190,168 0.0 193,030 1.5 195,945 3.1 S3 38,135 38,135 0.0 38,135 0.0 38,135 0.0 N 70,773 70,773 0.0 70,773 0.0 70,773 0.0 Benin S1 2,848 1,280 –55.1 623 –78.1 2 –99.9 S2 25,283 26,850 6.2 27,507 8.8 28,128 11.3 S3 14,917 14,917 0.0 14,917 0.0 14,917 0.0 N 72,079 72,079 0.0 72,079 0.0 72,079 0.0 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976.t004 PLOS ONE Global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976 January 26, 2022 14 / 24