Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

The expected changes in cashew suitability due to climate change in the four major cashew producing countries is shown in Table 4. Both in Coˆte d’Ivoire and Benin, a large proportion of the highly suitable (S1) areas are expected to become less suitable (S2) by 2050 due to increasing annual temperatures. In Coˆte d’Ivoire, the expected reduction in S1 is 16% (RCP 4.5) to 32% (RCP 8.5), and in Benin 55% (RCP 2.6) to nearly 100% (RCP 8.5). In the northern parts of both countries, long dry seasons limit cashew suitability. In India and Vietnam, both positive and negative changes in suitability might occur. In North India, positive changes are expected due to higher minimum temperatures of the coldest month, while in South India and Northeast India the negative changes will dominate, mostly due to increasing precipitation. In total (Table 4), the highly suitable (S1) areas will decrease by 16% (RCP 2.6) to 40% (RCP 8.5), whereas both S2 and S3 will increase by 4% (RCP 2.6) to 9% (RCP 8.5). In Northern and Cen- tral Vietnam, positive suitability changes are expected, while in the South suitability decreases. For both positive and negative changes, it is mainly increasing annual temperatures which are responsible in the respective regions. In Vietnam (Table 4), S1 will increase by about 35% in all scenarios, while S2 will decrease by 9% (RCP 2.6) to 7% (RCP 8.5) and S3 by 7% (RCP 2.6) to 11% (RCP 8.5). Unsuitable areas will show a slight decrease in general. Current avocado suitability The avocado suitability under current climatic conditions (Fig 3) revealed large regions with

high suitability (S1 & S2) in Central and South America (e.g. Honduras, Venezuela, Bolivia, Brazil), in West and Central Africa (e.g Coˆte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of the Congo, Uganda), and in South and Southeast Asia (e.g. India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Indonesia). Fig 5. Suitability change for coffee by 2050 according to RCP 4.5 (intermediate emissions). A Central and South America, B West and Central Africa, C South and Southeast Asia. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976.g005 PLOS ONE Global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976 January 26, 2022 12 / 24