Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change

mean minimum temperatures of the coldest month limit the northern and southern bound- aries of some growing regions (e.g. China, USA, Brazil), and high annual precipitation limits suitability in some wet regions in Central and South America, West Africa, India and South- east Asia. For the land and soil requirements it is mainly low soil pH limiting cashew suitability in South America (Amazon basin), Central Africa (Congo basin) and Southeast Asia (e.g. Malaysia, Sumatra, Borneo). Soil texture is not relevant for the suitability of cashew. The suitability of cashew in the four major cashew producing countries investigated (Viet- nam, India, Coˆte d’Ivoire, Benin) are different due to diverse agroclimatic conditions prevail- ing in these countries (Table 4). For India as an example, current suitability of different climate parameters is shown in Fig 6. It is mainly limited by long dry seasons, low minimum temperatures of the coldest month and high annual precipitation. Future cashew suitability The future suitability models reveal that, depending on the growing region, both positive and negative changes in cashew suitability can be observed (Table 4 and Fig 7). In total, areas of high suitability (S1) increase by about 17% globally, and areas of moderate and marginal suita- blility (S2 and S3) by 2–13% (see Table 3). Unsuitable areas are expected to slightly decrease globally. The main regions of positive change (Fig 7) are the USA, South America (Brazil, Para- guay, Uruguay, Argentina), East Africa around Lake Victoria, South Africa, Angola, North

India, Vietnam, China and Australia. Primarily, rising minimum temperatures of the coldest month and in some regions (e.g. East Africa, Angola, Australia) rising annual temperatures are responsible for these positive changes in suitability. The main negative changes (Fig 7) are modelled to occur in Central and South America (Panama, Colombia, Venezuela), West Africa Fig 3. Overall current suitability for avocado (aggregated climate, land and soil suitability). A Central and South America, B West and Central Africa, C South and Southeast Asia. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976.g003 PLOS ONE Global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261976 January 26, 2022 10 / 24