International climate adaptation assistance: Assessing public support in Switzerland

PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317344 February 12, 2025 3 / 26 PLOS ONE Support for adaptation assistance in Switzerland sought to manage migrant flows by providing sizeable aid to some countries (especially on Africa’s Mediterranean coast) [30]. This means that the financing aspect of climate adapta- tion aid and immigration is likely to be more salient in the European context, especially with the vocal opposition from right-wing parties to climate mitigation and immigration. The implication is that the political context in which the two forms of adaptation (migration and aid) are discussed differs in Japan and Switzerland, and their comparative understanding is of paramount significance for the future of adaptation aid at large. Finally, from a theoretical perspective, the study of public support for adaptation aid in Switzerland provides an oppor- tunity to elaborate theoretically on the two-level linkages between international collaboration on strategic issues and domestic support for adaptation aid. The rest of the paper proceeds as follows. The theoretical section elaborates on the logic of adaptation policy packages and outlines a set of hypotheses about public support. Section 3 provides a more detailed justification of the case selection and specifies the methodology of data collection and analysis. Section 4 presents the results and discussion before we conclude with implications for policy and future research. Theoretical framework International climate adaptation assistance is embedded in the broader debate on foreign aid

and immigration. Because individuals seldom evaluate issues in isolation, we adopt a policy package approach in theorizing and evaluating public support for climate adaptation assis- tance to specific countries. This implies that public support for bilateral adaptation aid could be influenced by factors such as immigration from this country, Swiss trade with this coun- try (instrumental motivations), how this country votes with Switzerland in the UN Security Council (convergence of policy positions in international forums), the location of the country (geographical bias), and the type of extreme weather event this country faces (empathy with countries with similar problems, or likely media salience of specific events). To identify different dimensions of our policy package we elaborate on the idea that issue linkages could influence public support for bilateral assistance. Building on Uji et al. [26] we ask respondents to consider packages that allow them to take into account climate migration and levels of adaptation financing as two forms of adaptation assistance. The logic is that exposure of Global South countries to climate-related extreme weather events and their eco- nomic, infrastructure, and displacement impacts can be viewed as a “push factor” [31], which encourages individuals and households to emigrate overseas. Adaptation assistance can work via two mechanisms. Financial aid could enhance the resilience of the local community to extreme weather events (think of drought-proofing agriculture, new ways to tackle urban heat

islands, or building coastal mangroves) and therefore lower the incentives to migrate overseas. Further, by enhancing resilience, adaptation aid could support economic growth, which may, in turn, reduce the incentives to emigrate, although we recognize the possibility of a non- linear relationship between economic growth and migration [32]. While most migration takes place within the country or spills over to neighboring countries [33–35], there is a perception (often fueled by populist parties) that a sizable percentage seeks to emigrate to the Global North. Thus, we also examine whether, in donor countries, the public willingness to support bilateral climate finance to specific overseas countries might also depend on their attitudes towards these countries. Our analysis tests the argument that donor and recipient characteristics may also influence public support for overseas adaptation assistance. The political economy of aid literature has long stipulated that the nature of donor and recipient countries and their relations in different international forums affects who gives assistance, in what form, how much, to whom, and why